ISW: Russian troops prepare to resume offensive on Ugledar

Analysts claim that the Russians are rotating. However, ISW experts do not believe that the Russians will be able to strengthen their offensive potential in this area with the help of rotation.

The Institute noted:

the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade is unlikely to achieve the tactical successes at Ugledar that the 155th Marine Infantry Brigade, the 40th Marine Infantry Brigade and other Russian formations could not achieve during several months of preparation to launch an offensive in that direction. Degradation of other units in the area, significant losses of equipment, and persistent problems with artillery will probably prevent Russian forces from gaining significant tactical advantages if they decide to resume offensive operations in the area.

ISW believes that the reason for a potential resumption of offensives near Ugledar may be internal processes within the Russian Armed Forces:

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has ordered Colonel General Rustam Muradov, commander of the Eastern Military District (EMMD), to take Ugledar at any cost to assuage widespread criticism of the Defence Ministry's lack of progress and significant casualties near Ugledar.

Shoigu recently visited Muradov in the western Donetsk region, probably to assess the possibility of an offensive on Ugledar as well as Muradov's future role as SVO commander.

The Institute added that Russian troops would need to advance 24km from the current frontline around Ugledar to support operations in other parts of Donetsk Region:

Resuming costly offensive operations around Ugledar would be a misallocation of already depleted forces into an increasingly pointless operational effort, but Muradov's personal motivation may encourage Russian troops in the area to resume offensive operations after all.