China may have been secretly importing thousands of tonnes of uranium from Africa – media reports

For more than two decades, significant quantities of uranium may have been exported from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), even though the country has not officially reported any uranium production for many years. Researchers have found that between 2,000 and 5,000 tonnes of raw uranium may have been exported from the country between 2000 and 2024. This is according to a study by researchers from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and Princeton University in the US, as reported by Interesting Engineering.

The authors of the study note that the volumes of potential exports are significant in the context of global uranium production. Around 55,000–65,000 tonnes of natural uranium are mined worldwide each year, so shipments of even a few thousand tonnes become a notable factor in the global market.

How uranium came to be linked to cobalt mining

Under international rules, countries that mine uranium must report this to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and provide information on the movement of nuclear material. This is necessary to comply with agreements on the non-proliferation of nuclear technology. However, researchers claim that in the case of the DRC, some of the uranium may have fallen outside official reporting.

The reason, according to the scientists, is linked to the specific characteristics of local deposits. The Democratic Republic of the Congo is the world’s largest supplier of cobalt – a metal that plays a key role in the production of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and is also used in renewable energy technologies.

In the region known as the Copper Belt, where the main cobalt reserves are concentrated, this element is often found alongside uranium.

When companies mine cobalt ore in this region, they can simultaneously extract significant quantities of uranium, as it is associated with cobalt deposits. Furthermore, there are nearby areas where uranium was previously mined, so the ore may still contain high concentrations of it,” explained Ryan Manzuk, a researcher at the University of Wisconsin–Madison and Princeton University.

Most of the uranium may have ended up in China

Scientists believe that a significant proportion of the uranium ore from the DRC may have ended up in China. It is in China that around 95 per cent of the world’s cobalt processing capacity is concentrated, making the country the main destination for such shipments.

According to the researchers’ estimates, a volume of 2,000–5,000 tonnes of uranium could potentially be of significant importance. Under certain conditions, this quantity of material could be sufficient to produce between 600 and 1,500 nuclear warheads.

In a peaceful application, these reserves could provide fuel for a light-water nuclear reactor for approximately 25 years.

As this uranium has not been officially declared, and its mining and extraction have not been recorded, its further use is not subject to the usual restrictions, said Sebastian Philipp, a nuclear security expert and associate professor at the University of Wisconsin–Madison.

That said, scientists believe the situation most likely did not arise as a result of deliberate concealment of information. However, the very fact that such quantities of material were moved without the involvement of international control mechanisms is a cause for concern.

The danger lies not only in exports, but also in waste

Researchers also warn of potential consequences for human health. They estimate that between 1,000 and 4,000 tonnes of uranium may have been left in mine tailings – waste produced after mineral extraction. Such materials may pose a risk to mine workers and residents of settlements near mining areas.

The world is heading towards a potential uranium shortage

The scientists’ findings come against a backdrop of growing demand for uranium for nuclear power. The World Nuclear Association has previously warned that the global nuclear industry could face a shortage of raw materials due to an increase in the number of reactors and growing interest in nuclear power. According to the organisation’s forecasts, the demand for uranium for nuclear power stations could increase by around a third – to 86,000 tonnes per year by 2030. By 2040, demand could reach 150,000 tonnes.

At the same time, experts expect that production at existing mines could decline significantly between 2030 and 2040. This reinforces the need to search for new deposits and to establish a more transparent system for monitoring global supplies of uranium ore.