ISW: Russia will try to seize the initiative in the war

A 27 January report by the American Institute for War Research (ISW) states:

The Kremlin is likely preparing to conduct a decisive strategic operation - most likely in the Luhansk region - over the next six months to seize the initiative and end Ukraine's current string of operational successes.

Recent limited Russian ground attacks in Zaporizhzhia oblast are described by experts as "distracting" Ukrainian forces and setting the stage for an offensive in Luhansk.

Analysts continue to regard an offensive in northern Ukraine from Belarus as highly unlikely - there are no signs of strike groups forming in the republic, and Russian units there use training facilities for rotations. And information about a repeat attack on Kiev is an information operation.

ISW cite eastern Ukraine, in particular Kharkiv region, as the most likely target of the Russian Federation.