ISW: Russian Federation may carry out provocations on border with Chernihiv region and Moldova

Experts point out that a possible provocation on the border in Chernihiv Region is necessary to force Belarus to enter the war.

As for Transnistria, with this the Kremlin tried to distort the words of Zelenski, who offered military assistance to Maia Sandu to fight the occupants. Earlier, the Russian Defence Ministry accused Ukraine of allegedly preparing an invasion of Moldova.

At the same time, ISW analysts believe that the Russian Federation will not directly attack Moldova, as Moscow has no military potential to do so.

The ISW report also notes small Russian advances in three directions on the eastern front. Based on social media and geolocated videos, the Russians have advanced slightly in the eastern, southern and southwestern sectors of Bakhmut, ISW notes.

Minor advances by the Russian army are also recorded forty kilometres south of Bakhmut, near Novobakhmutovka (west of Horlivka).

Analysts conclude that the Russians have reached the settlement of Pobeda south of Marinka (which is another 45 kilometres south, close to Donetsk), according to geolocated videos,