ISW says in which directions Russian troops would move in the event of an offensive

The US Institute for War Research (ISW) has reported that Russia will launch an offensive in the next six months. According to experts, such a breakthrough is planned by the Russian Federation in Luhansk Region.

The planned Russian offensive will take place in Luhansk Region or near Ugledar in Donetsk Region. The decisive strategic action in Luhansk Region could be either a large offensive or a Russian defensive operation to stop the AFU," analysts said.

They also point out that many facts suggest that a new offensive by Putin to regain the initiative on the battlefield could begin as early as February or March.

Experts point out that the recent ground attacks by the occupiers in Zaporizhzhya Region may be aimed at dispersing Ukrainian forces and creating conditions for an offensive against Luhansk.

The Russian Federation is also redeploying units of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division from the RB to Luhansk Region.

The ISW believes that a new Russian offensive is unlikely to be directed at the northern part of Ukraine as there are no indications that the occupiers are forming strike groups in Belarus.

The Russians are mainly using Belarusian infrastructure and training capacity for training rotations, so the offensive in question is likely to be aimed at the Luhansk region. At the same time, it could also take place near Ugledar to the west of Donetsk, analysts say.