Scientists have found a serious error in predictions of animal extinctions

The study has shown that species forced to migrate as a result of climate change may be declining much faster than current models suggest. This means that conservation measures may be introduced too late.

The study has been published in the journal *Nature Ecology & Evolution*.

Where does the error lie?

When the climate changes, many animals and plants are forced to seek new places to live. For example, species gradually shift northwards or move higher up into the mountains, where suitable temperatures and humidity levels are maintained.

Until now, the most widely used models have assumed that population sizes decrease roughly in proportion to the reduction in suitable habitat. If suitable areas decrease by 10 per cent, then the population size should decrease by roughly the same amount.

However, a new study has shown that for migratory species, things may unfold quite differently.

Even small changes can prove critical

The researchers created computer models of ‘virtual species’ with varying rates of reproduction, the ability to disperse, and the capacity to adapt to new conditions.

It turned out that if a species’ familiar habitat does not disappear completely but simply shifts, even a small loss of suitable territory can cause a sharp decline in population size.

In other words, animals may simply not be able to keep up with climate change.

Why this is important

Today, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) uses specific criteria to assess the risk of species extinction and to compile the Red List.

The authors of the study believe that the existing criteria may be too conservative. As a result, many species are only classified as highly threatened once their populations have already declined significantly.

According to the scientists, assessment methods need to be updated to identify the most vulnerable species earlier and allow time to take measures to conserve them.

This does not mean that the Red List is wrong

The researchers emphasise that they did not study actual animal populations.

Instead, they used computer models to test how well existing methods can predict the risk of species extinction under conditions of climate change.

The results show that the assessment methods themselves need improving, particularly for species forced to shift their range due to global warming.

Why this is important

As the climate changes, more and more animals and plants will be forced to migrate in search of suitable conditions.

If the risk of their extinction is systematically underestimated, conservation programmes may be launched too late, when it becomes significantly more difficult to save populations.

Background

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is the world’s leading source of information on the extinction risk faced by animals, plants and fungi. It is used by governments, scientists and conservation organisations when developing biodiversity conservation programmes.

In recent years, recommendations on taking the impacts of climate change into account have been added to the assessment criteria. New research suggests that these approaches may require further revision.

Source

Raya Keuth et al. Models used for Red List assessments underestimate climate-related extinction risk of range-shifting species. Nature Ecology & Evolution (2026).