How the destruction of the Kakhovka reservoir will affect southern Ukraine

on 6 June, Russian invaders blew up the dam of one of the largest reservoirs. An estimated 170 metres of the dam was damaged. The consequences of the destruction will be catastrophic, particularly for southern Ukraine.

According to preliminary forecasts, the disappearance of the Kakhovka reservoir will devastate many irrigation canals, Kurkul reports.

People

80 settlements are at risk of flooding. This will affect people in the first place. As the disaster will have long-lasting consequences local authorities have already declared evacuation.

According to the preliminary data of Kherson OV, 8 settlements are completely flooded. And over 1000 people have been evacuated from the region. Among the evacuees may be people working in agriculture and related industries.

Farmland and soil

The breach of the dam made it impossible to cultivate the irrigated areas in Kherson and Krivoy Rog.

Before the war the Kherson region had the most arable land in Ukraine - up to 2 million hectares. Part of this area is now under occupation, the de-occupied territories remain mined and some will be flooded," the report says.

Significant swamping of the drained lands of the lower Dnieper River is predicted, as well as soil degradation due to tidal runoff, and wind erosion that will manifest itself over time. In some areas desertification and destruction of vegetation may occur.

In addition, flooding kills some trees, depresses the phenomenon of coastal erosion and the spread of canyons and valleys.

Horticulture and vegetable production

The Dnieper's coast, namely Novaya Kakhovka, is the centre of horticulture production. Here orchards, berries and irrigated vineyards were cultivated. Waterlogging and disruption of irrigation systems will lead to a decline in perennial plantings in the near future. And in the long term it will affect the reduction of fruit and berry production.

Similar effects are predicted for vegetable production. But the prospects for renewed production capacity are more positive, as the vegetables do not have to wait several years for their first harvest and the plantation will reach full yield. However, the lack of splicing will hamper the growth of vegetables.

Water resources

Irreparable damage will be caused by poisoning of water, which will cause decay of fish and washing away chemical fertilisers from fields, flooded landfills of settlements, industry and factories. The lower reaches of the Southern Bug and Glich in Dnepropetrovsk will become unfit for drinking and agriculture.

As of 2019, there were 426.8 thousand ha under irrigation in Kherson region, of which 323.1 thousand ha were actually irrigated. In Zaporizhzhya, 240.7 thousand ha were under irrigation, of which 45 thousand ha were actually irrigated. Kakhovskoe also filled Yuzhnoye water reservoir from which Dnipropetrovsk oblast's irrigation system was fed. The oblast uses 2.9m cu.m. of water for irrigation of agricultural plots," the report says.

Accordingly, the destruction will render inoperable pumping stations, dams, canals, and other hydraulic engineering structures in the irrigation systems of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Change of flora and fauna in the region

It is predicted that affected areas may be exposed to pests and diseases that can spread to nearby areas. Even in natural conditions due to flooding and destruction of fishing water bodies, atypical species of fish may spread.

Climate

Climate change is almost unstoppable. Because destruction will change the evaporation and temperature balance of the land near the Dnieper, and will result in a large area not covered by plants. These deserts will heat up quickly and cause dry spells, rivers of pressure changes, dust storms and other weather disasters.

Lack of irrigation and high climate risks will force some producers to abandon cultivation and risk desertification on parts of the land," they add.

Logistics

In the next few years, the Dnieper will become un-navigable, and roads, bridges, quays and protective dikes downstream of the Dnieper will be destroyed and flooded.
The ports of Nikopol, Kamyanets-Dniprovska and Energodal have long been closed. Railways connecting Zaporizhzhia, the Dnieper to Crimea, Kryvyi Rif and Donbass are blurred and destroyed.

In addition, elevator facilities located on the banks of the Dnieper River and the tributary, where grain was collected for loading onto barges, were destroyed or damaged.