ISW: Russia's big offensive in Luhansk oblast begins

According to the Institute for War Studies (ISW) analysts, Russian forces have regained the initiative in Ukraine and launched a major offensive in the Luhansk region.

The Russian offensive has begun in the Svatovo-Kreminna area on the border of Luhansk and Kharkiv oblasts - where ISW had predicted this offensive in recent days. ISW bases all its conclusions on open sources.

The Institute said:

The pace of Russian operations along the Svatovo-Kreminna line in western Luhansk oblast has increased markedly over the past week, with Russian sources reporting that Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian defensive lines and making minor advances along the Kharkiv and Luhansk oblast border, particularly northwest of Svatovo near Kupyansk and west of Kreminna.

Units of several regiments of the 144th and 3rd Motorized Rifle Divisions (20th Combined Arms Army, Western Military District), supported by units of the 76th Airborne Division and unspecified units of the Southern Military District, are involved in the offensive.

The fact that the offensive has begun does not mean that it will be successful. After its culmination (i.e. exhaustion of the accumulated reserves of manpower and equipment), Ukraine will have an opportunity to regain the initiative and launch a counteroffensive, ISW experts wrote.

The experts stressed:

So far, the Russian grouping has not yet reached its maximum possible tempo and has not activated all the reserves - for example, the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army of the Western Military District, which was transferred to the Luhansk Region after its re-forming in Belarus in January, has not yet entered the battle.