ISW: Putin is not ready for a protracted war or a nuclear strike
Experts point out that the Russian Federation is late in carrying out large-scale military reforms and is treating the situation in Ukraine as a protracted and major war.
However, Putin himself continues to follow the same pattern of restrained decision-making, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
ISW experts stated:
Putin is additionally conducting polls to assess how Russians perceive mobilisation. ISW has also seen conflicting reports from Russian State Duma and Kremlin officials regarding changes to mobilisation and conscription protocols, possibly indicating that Putin has ordered these regulations to be prepared but is reluctant to announce them to the public.
Analysts believe that Putin's reluctance to take risks directly related to his conventional war in Ukraine indicates that he is still unlikely to go for nuclear escalation or war with NATO.
The ISW report states:
Putin values his domestic status quo and tries to avoid risky policies to achieve his own goals.
Putin also continues to demonstrate that he remains a calculating man, paying considerable attention to eliminating risks, even though his perception of the situation he faces diverges from reality.
Oleg Kotov writes about the war in Ukraine and how it is changing the world.