Bloomberg: Putin intends to step up attacks on Ukraine following the collapse of talks

Russia is considering stepping up its attacks on Ukraine, as the Kremlin believes the peace talks have effectively reached an impasse. Possible scenarios include a more intensive use of ballistic missiles against Kyiv, including the capital’s central districts, as well as strikes on infrastructure in other cities. This is reported by Bloomberg, citing several sources close to the Kremlin.

According to the agency, the negotiation formats previously under discussion have now virtually ground to a halt, and Moscow sees no sufficient reason to end the war under pressure from sanctions or due to Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries and logistics infrastructure.

Bloomberg’s sources claim that in Russia, Ukrainian strikes are increasingly perceived as actions by NATO countries, as Alliance member states are supplying Ukraine with weapons and intelligence.

At the same time, the agency’s sources note that, in their assessment, the current phase of escalation has not yet reached its peak. Bloomberg also reports that US attempts to bring about an end to the war have not yet led to a breakthrough, and the Kremlin is showing no signs of being prepared to agree to a peaceful settlement.

The Kremlin believes it has already made concessions

According to Bloomberg, some Russian officials and government representatives believe that Moscow has already made a number of concessions during diplomatic talks and has thereby weakened its own negotiating position.

The agency’s sources also stated that the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Anchorage was viewed by the Kremlin as yet another attempt at compromise, which failed to produce the expected result.

However, according to Bloomberg, Moscow remains hopeful that US representatives will return to the negotiating table. These include Special Envoy Steve Whitkoff and Jared Kushner, who may visit Moscow, although the specific dates of their trips have not yet been determined.

According to sources, expectations of a major breakthrough in the negotiations remain low, and in the absence of diplomatic contacts, Moscow reportedly sees few alternatives to continued military pressure to achieve its stated objectives.

The CIA Director’s visit to Moscow

Against this backdrop, the visit by CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow on 25 August attracted particular attention. The American official spent several hours in the Russian capital and met with Russian intelligence officials. The Kremlin confirmed that such contacts had taken place, though the content of the talks has not been disclosed publicly.

At the same time, it was expected that Whitcoff and Kushner might, after a long hiatus, resume contacts with the Russian side and visit Kyiv for the first time. However, the dates of any such trips remain unknown.

A nuclear scenario is also being discussed in Russia

Bloomberg also reports, citing sources, that the intensification of Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory is leading some Russian officials to discuss an extreme scenario – the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons. However, Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Centre for Russia and Eurasia in Berlin, considers the risk of such a development to be extremely low.

In his view, the use of tactical nuclear weapons has limited military effectiveness in the context of today’s dispersed battlefield, whilst the political consequences of breaching the nuclear taboo would be extremely severe. As long as Russia retains the capacity to continue escalation using conventional weapons – including by intensifying missile strikes – there remains little incentive to cross the nuclear threshold.