ISW: Putin is setting Russia up for a protracted conflict with Ukraine and NATO

The Russian authorities continue to systematically prepare both society and the defence-industrial sector for a prolonged military conflict with Ukraine, as well as for a probable escalation with the North Atlantic Alliance. This is stated in a new analytical review by the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to experts, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on 30 May that provides for the possibility of removing shareholders of defence industry companies if they fail to fulfil state orders under martial law. Instead of the owners, the management of such structures may be transferred to a specially appointed management company.

The document covers not only military enterprises, but also civilian organisations, including aircraft and shipbuilding companies, as well as state subcontractors. ISW analysts believe that in this way Russia is creating a legal framework that would allow for the centralised management of the economy and industry in the event of full-fledged martial law, with the aim of large-scale militarisation.

ISW maintains its assessment that the Kremlin continues to actively prepare Russian society and the economy for a long-term war in Ukraine, indicating Moscow's lack of interest in a bona fide diplomatic resolution of the conflict," the report said.

In addition, the report emphasises that statements by representatives of the Russian authorities indicate their intention to achieve much more extensive territorial goals than the four Ukrainian regions that Moscow had previously unilaterally declared part of the Russian Federation.

For example, the chairman of the State Duma Defence Committee, Andrey Kartapolov, said that Ukraine could lose control over key cities - such as Kharkiv, Dnipro, Sumy, Zaporizhzhya, Mykolaiv and Odessa - if it does not agree to a political settlement on Russia's terms. ISW experts believe that such statements are part of a pressure strategy and indicate the Kremlin's intention to wage a protracted conflict to achieve military and political goals.

ISW believes that the Russian leadership is adhering to the so-called 'victory theory' based on the assumption that the Russian armed forces will be able to gradually advance on Ukrainian territory over a long period of time," the report said.

Russia's plans towards NATO

The document also warns of the continuing threat of Russian aggression against NATO member states. While previously the main question was whether the Kremlin would dare a direct clash with the Alliance, military experts and politicians are now discussing where, when and how this could happen.

According to Danish intelligence estimates, Russia is capable of preparing for a localised attack in six months, a regional conflict in the Baltic region within two years, and a full-scale war in Europe in about five years.

David Petraeus, former head of the CIA, also expressed the opinion that Lithuania could be the country most at risk from Russia.