Experts: Belarus unlikely to invade Ukraine

This is reported by analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

They are convinced that an invasion of Ukraine by the Belarusian army is extremely unlikely.

Experts believe that Lukashenka has no intention of going to war in Ukraine because of the possibility of renewed internal unrest if his security apparatus is weakened by involvement in the war in Ukraine.

In 2020 and 2021, the armed forces became an additional security apparatus for Lukashenko in conjunction with the Belarusian security services that suppressed popular protests.

Involving a large part of this security apparatus in the war in Ukraine is likely to make Lukashenko vulnerable to new unrest and resistance. Lukashenko is also likely to realise that an invasion of Ukraine would undermine his credibility as leader of a sovereign country, as it would become apparent that Russian efforts to ensure full control over Belarus have succeeded.