Francis Fukuyama spoke about his vision of ending the war in Ukraine

Francis Fukuyama says that a return to the 1991 borders will not destroy Russia. He said this in an interview with Radio Liberty.

The main theses voiced by Francis Fukuyama:

• Firstly - none of us can predict how long this war will last. I think that people who say it could last 5 or 10 years don't know what they are talking about. That's one possibility. But we don't know if it is inevitable.
• I think the situation in Ukraine will be something like the situation in Israel. In the sense that Russia is not going anywhere. The Ukrainian victory, as most people realise it, is a return to the 1991 borders. However, it will not destroy Russia.
• It will not be like it was with Germany or Japan in 1945 when those countries were defeated. Russia has nuclear weapons, it has oil, it has a lot of resources. And Ukraine, in my opinion, cannot destroy Russia militarily like the Allies destroyed Hitler's Germany.
• Russia will remain and will probably remain quite powerful. So in that sense, yes, it will be like Israel.
• Even if you kick Russia out of all your territory, it will still remain a serious threat.
• I don't think there's any consensus in any of the Western countries right now that the breakup of Russia is a bad thing. I think people are worried about the nuclear arsenal that Russia has. We went through those fears when the USSR collapsed - what would happen to all those weapons?
• Russia has turned into a fascist state. It is an extreme nationalist regime that has centralised all power and cut off all alternative centres of power.
• I see that the basic institutions of liberal democracy are in place. You have huge problems with corruption and rather poor implementation of services by the government. But this is an endless process of reform that started before the war.
• Now there is a war, and now the attempts to fight corruption have become stronger. Also a lot of patriotism has emerged, with people willing to sacrifice themselves for the country. So compared to some of the current EU members, Ukraine deserves serious consideration for membership.
• I think this scenario is worth considering and taking seriously. It makes no sense for Russia to escalate a conflict using nuclear weapons. After all, it is hard to see what benefits they will gain from this move. They would lose a lot of support around the world and they would likely force NATO to respond.
• And if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, it could hurt them themselves. Because the wind will blow that radiation into Russia. So, in my opinion, the threat level for the use of nuclear weapons is low and will continue to be low.