Scientists tell if Venice will sink

The city has been sinking for centuries, but in recent years the rate of subsidence has accelerated due to a combination of factors, including natural land subsidence, groundwater extraction, and the weight of buildings and infrastructure.

In addition to subsidence, Venice also faces the threat of rising sea levels due to climate change, which has led to more frequent and severe flooding in the city. This phenomenon is known as "acqua alta" and can cause significant damage to buildings, infrastructure and cultural heritage sites.

To address these problems, the Italian government and the city of Venice have taken several measures, including the MOSE project, which aims to build a system of barriers to protect the city from high tides. The effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain, however, and Venice will continue to face serious problems in the coming years as it tries to adapt to the effects of sinking and rising sea levels.

When will Venice sink?

It is difficult to predict exactly when Venice will sink, as the rate of sinking is affected by a number of complex factors, including natural subsidence, groundwater extraction, the weight of buildings and infrastructure. But it is clear that the city is already experiencing significant subsidence and the impact of sea level rise, and that these problems are likely to become even more acute in the years ahead.

According to a study published in 2020, Venice is sinking at a rate of about 2 millimetres a year, which may seem insignificant, but over time it could have significant consequences. In addition, the city is threatened by rising sea levels due to climate change, which could exacerbate the effects of sinking and lead to more frequent and severe flooding.

It is important to note that subsidence is not a sudden event, but rather a gradual process occurring over many years or even centuries. While it is difficult to predict exactly when Venice will sink under water, it is clear that the city will continue to face serious problems as it tries to adapt to the effects of sinking and rising sea levels.

What else do researchers say

The study, published in 2020, was carried out by a team of researchers from Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, the University of Padua and the Italian National Research Council.

The study used a number of data sources, including satellite measurements and historical records, to estimate the rate at which Venice has settled over time. The researchers found that the city is settling at a rate of about 2 millimetres a year, with some areas settling faster than others.

The study also highlighted the role of human activities, such as groundwater extraction and the weight of buildings and infrastructure, in exacerbating the natural subsidence of the land. In addition, the researchers noted that rising sea levels due to climate change are likely to increase the risk of flooding and erosion in the city.

Overall, the study provided important insights into the current problem of land subsidence in Venice and the need for further monitoring and mitigation efforts.