By 2050, 60 per cent of the world's adults will be overweight or obese: results of a major study

Researchers call it one of the major public health challenges of the 21st century.

Details: Global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, 1990-2021, with projections to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, The Lancet (2025). DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)00355-1

"Global epidemic" of excess kilograms

• Data: From 1990 to 2021, the total number of overweight or obese people increased from 929 million to 2.6 billion.
• Projection for 2050: The authors estimate that about 3.8 billion adults (about 60 per cent of the global adult population) will have weight problems.

The paper's lead author, Emmanuela Gakidou of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME, USA), called the situation an "unprecedented global epidemic" and a "huge societal failure". Without targeted action, she said, the world's health systems could face a tremendous strain by 2050, particularly for patients over 65 years of age, among whom obesity rates will increase manifold.

Children and adolescents: a doubling trend

Researchers predict a 121 per cent increase in obesity among children and adolescents worldwide by 2050. And a third of them will live in two regions - North Africa and the Middle East, and Latin America and the Caribbean.

Study co-author Jessica Kerr of Australia's Murdoch Children's Research Institute is convinced it's not too late to change the situation:

"Stronger political commitment is needed to reshape food systems towards healthy and affordable foods, and to develop infrastructure for physical activity - from reducing the proportion of ultra-processed foods to creating parks and sports zones."

Which countries already have the highest obesity rates?

More than half of all overweight or obese adults live in eight nations: China, India, the US, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Egypt.
However, researchers emphasise that the obesity problem is more complex than just poor diet and sedentary lifestyles. As Thorkild Sorensen of the University of Copenhagen (not involved in the study) notes, social vulnerability of the population also contributes - "there is a strange and as yet unexplained tendency for socially disadvantaged groups to have a higher risk of obesity."

Background and authors of the study

The work draws on data from the global Global Burden of Disease (IHME) project, which involves thousands of experts around the world and is supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

According to the scientists, the current picture requires urgent action by governments, from adjusting the food industry to encouraging physical activity at all levels. The health of future generations and the stability of health systems in many countries depend on it, the authors warn.