Why the US should actively participate in Russia-Ukraine talks - expert opinion

However, without the active participation of the United States, these talks are doomed to failure, writes Anatol Lieven, a well-known political scientist and expert on international relations, in his column for The Nation:

"The positions of Russia and Ukraine are too far apart. Without a carrot and stick from the US, it is almost impossible to imagine that they will be able to come to an agreement".

According to Lieven, it is the restoration of relations with Washington that could be the main incentive for Russia:

"Active US involvement is the main incentive that could push Russia towards peace with Ukraine. Improving relations with America remains one of the few significant motives for the Kremlin."

The expert emphasises that the European position is too contradictory and ineffective. The EU simultaneously makes tough demands on Russia, but is unable to offer effective instruments of influence:

"The European position is completely inconsistent. Europe is demanding tough measures that actually amount to Russia's capitulation. It is obvious that Moscow will never accept such conditions. Moreover, Europe itself recognises that the sanctions have not worked, and it is not capable of replacing American aid to Ukraine."

According to Lieven, the US should offer Moscow concrete incentives to induce Moscow to compromise:

"If America wants to bring the parties closer to peace, the Trump administration needs to formulate clear conditions and a strategy to force Russia and Ukraine to accept them."

The author points out that the Western press incorrectly portrays the Russian leadership as a single monolith, completely subservient to Putin's will. In reality, there are two competing groups in the Russian establishment with different approaches to Ukraine:

"The first group believes that it is necessary to go all the way and completely subjugate Ukraine. The second group is convinced that it is more favourable for Russia to reconcile with the US and Europe. They are ready to compromise, doubting the possibility of a complete victory over Ukraine."

Lieven emphasises that Vladimir Putin has not yet decided which position to choose. Therefore, the American strategy should be aimed at strengthening the moderate group:

"Putin has not yet made a final decision. Therefore, the US should create a combination of pressure and incentives to strengthen the influence of moderate forces in the Kremlin."

By "pressure," the expert means continued military aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. But he warns that without positive incentives, such a policy may be counterproductive and will only strengthen the positions of radicals in Moscow.

As for incentives, the US can offer Russia sanctions relief, restoration of trade relations and security guarantees, among other things:

"Washington can offer Moscow a refusal to station US troops in Poland and the Baltic states, a halt to NATO expansion and negotiations on nuclear arms control."

However, in return, the US should demand that Russia give up unrealistic demands on Ukraine, such as a substantial reduction of its army or giving up territories. At the same time, according to Lieven, the US administration may support the Russian demand for constitutional guarantees for the Russian language in Ukraine.

In conclusion, the expert writes:

"If Russia accepts these conditions, the US can present them to Kiev, offering Ukraine a choice: either accept the agreement or continue the war without American help. This sounds harsh, but much less harsh than the scenario of Ukraine's defeat in a protracted war."

Thus, Lieven is convinced that active US involvement is the key to a peaceful settlement in Ukraine. Without this, the expert believes, the conflict may drag on indefinitely, and the price of this will be huge - tens of thousands of human lives.

Recall, the US Senate is preparing to consider a bill on new sanctions against Russia. Trump, who has been criticised for being soft on Putin, has been given a chance: to use the Ukrainian success in attacks on Russian airbases as leverage.

He can declare: either Putin agrees to a ceasefire or sanctions will be strengthened. This will allow Trump to show: he is still in control - and perhaps achieve his goal of a long-term peace on his terms.

As previously reported, the second round of talks between Kiev and Moscow took place on 2 June in Istanbul.

The main points of the briefing of the Ukrainian delegation on the results of the second round of talks in Istanbul:

Representatives of the Ukrainian delegation - Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umierov, Deputy Foreign Minister Serhiy Kislitsa and Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Defence Ministry Vadym Skibitsky - told journalists about the results of the talks with the Russian delegation in Turkey.

▫️Россия did not agree to a ceasefire and a meeting of the leaders. The only agreement reached was the issue of prisoner exchange.

▫️Если if the Russians were really ready for a ceasefire, their planes would not have been blown up.

▫️По on the release of prisoners, the sides agreed to focus on three categories in an all-for-all format: the seriously wounded and seriously ill, young soldiers aged 18 to 25, and the bodies of dead soldiers in a 6,000-by-6,000 format.

▫️Украина insisted on the return of Ukrainian children whom Russia had illegally deported from the temporarily occupied territories.

▫️Украинская side only received a "memorandum" from Russia today. The negotiating teams will have a week to study it. After that, the sides will agree on further steps.

▫️Все key issues can only be resolved at a meeting of the leaders. Further work by the negotiating group only makes sense if it is aimed at preparing such a meeting.

▫️Украина calls for real work to end the war.

▫️Киев wants European and American partners to be integrated into the negotiation process.

▫️Прекращение of the ceasefire is the basis for future negotiations for a sustainable peace.

▫️Украина suggested that Russia should hold another meeting between 20 and 30 June.