Ukraine's victory will be the beginning of Russia's war with NATO - ISW

Vladimir Putin is only feigning a desire for peace talks, but he seeks to completely destroy Ukraine. If Kiev wins, he intends to declare war on NATO. This is stated in the analysis of the Institute for the Study of War.

The experts pointed out that any pause in hostilities announced by either side is seen by the Kremlin as an opportunity to increase the production of weapons and training of soldiers in order to hit Ukraine with renewed vigour. Moreover, the pause could be an excuse for the Russians to prepare for a direct clash with the North Atlantic Alliance.

A theoretical ceasefire will not prevent Russia from resuming its offensive campaign to destroy Ukrainian statehood. Therefore, the terrorist country will use any pause in hostilities to prepare for future offensive operations on Ukrainian territory," the experts warned.

They pointed out that the cease-fire would provide Russia with an opportunity to divert manpower to large-scale expansion and reform efforts instead of ongoing hostilities in Ukraine. Also, the aggressor country is likely to continue mobilising its defence industrial base without the constraints of immediate operational needs.

Any agreement will not force Russia to honour it. The Kremlin will not respect it," the analysis said.

The Institute for the Study of War emphasises that Moscow has already started preparing for a clash with NATO countries.

The Russian Federation will consider everything but the surrender of Ukraine as an existential threat to Russia's ability to wage such a war," it said.

Experts warned that if the Russian Federation succeeds in the war, the terrorist country will have access to millions of people whom it can force into military service. At the same time, the Russians will try to use Ukrainian resources and industrial potential.

For Putin, victory in Ukraine is a prerequisite for being able to wage war with NATO, and any ceasefire or negotiated settlement, with the exception of Ukraine's complete surrender, as a temporary pause in his efforts to destroy an independent Ukrainian state," the experts pointed out.