Russia is preparing a secret large-scale mobilisation - BILD

Russian troops have suffered significant losses in recent months, and the situation is forcing the Kremlin to take new measures, German publication BILD reported.

Expectations and plans

According to international estimates, between 110,000 and 140,000 Russian troops have been killed in combat since February 2022. Against this background, President Vladimir Putin intends to increase the number of Russian troops in Ukraine. Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Ivan Havrylyuk said that the number of Russian troops in Ukraine has already increased from 400,000 at the beginning of the year to 600,000 at the moment. The plan is to increase this number to 800 thousand by the end of the year.

However, despite the Kremlin's attempts to attract more soldiers through higher payments and pressure on conscripts, the resources for recruiting contract soldiers in Russian regions are almost exhausted. This necessitates a new wave of mobilisation, which is likely to be carried out secretly, without an official announcement.

Potential scenarios

Experts suggest that Putin may use the recent offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region as a pretext to start mobilisation. Russian authorities will likely try to portray this as a troop rotation for rest and recuperation, thus avoiding open protest among the population.

The attack on the Kursk region in August showed the shortage of Russian troops at the front, which increases the likelihood of new conscriptions. However, to avoid negative consequences like those that followed the announcement of mobilisation in September 2022, the Kremlin will try to conduct it as covertly as possible.