IMF says how many Ukrainian refugees will stay abroad

About two million Ukrainians who fled the country after the start of the large-scale invasion will not return to live in Ukraine, the International Monetary Fund has said.

We assume that the war will continue. We need some basic costs to encourage the return of migrants and time. So, we expect only a small net inflow next year 2024," the IMF representative said.

The IMF forecast says that by the end of the projection period (until 2027) "there will be a net negative outflow of 2 million people relative to the pre-war scenario."

In turn, the study by the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), which is based on data from two waves of opinion polls conducted by the research agency Info Sapiens in November-December 2022 and April-May 2023 says that about 6 million Ukrainians are still abroad because of the Russian invasion. And 1.3 million to 3.3 million may stay there.

Most IDPs have found a place in Poland (990,000 people) and Germany (1.1 million people). Most of those who left Ukraine were women aged 35-49 and children. About 14 per cent of all refugees are children under five years old, about the same number of children 6-9 years old and 10-13 years old.

As the Centre's experts stress, the non-return of migrants can have a great impact on Ukraine's demographic situation. If the state is not able to implement an effective policy on the return of migrants, Ukraine will face a labour shortage of 3.1-4.5 million people by 2032