From a football fan to the President of Poland: who is Karol Nawrocki

On Sunday, 1 June 2025, he won the presidential election with 50.89% of the vote, beating the liberal mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski.

This victory was a real triumph for the Law and Justice (PiS) party, which had supported Nawrocki and was able to regain ground after its defeat in the October 2023 parliamentary elections. At the same time, it was a major blow to the ruling coalition led by former European Council chief Donald Tusk. The president-government relationship now promises to become much more tense and conflictual than it was under outgoing President Andrzej Duda, also a PiS representative.

After the results were announced, Poland's stock market reacted by falling more than 2 per cent and the national currency zloty weakened against the euro, reflecting investor fears of future political instability.

Karol Nawrocki, a 42-year-old historian and former director of Poland's Institute of National Remembrance, is known for his hardline nationalist rhetoric. As a young man, he often found himself at the centre of conflicts and even admitted to taking part in organised fights. It would seem that such a background is not conducive to a political career, but Nawrocki has managed to turn it into his strength, positioning himself as a man capable of decisive action. He emphasised that he intended to defend Poland's sovereignty and oppose Brussels' "excessive interference". He also favoured a social policy focused on Poles rather than migrants, including refugees from Ukraine.

His victory drew cheers among conservative politicians in Central Europe, with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban calling it "fantastic". In the Czech Republic, Eurosceptic leader Andrej Babiš expressed hope that Navrotsky's success would give him momentum in the upcoming elections in October.

Experts are already calling the situation a "disaster" for moderate forces seeking to bring Poland closer to the European Union.

Political scientist Wawrzyniec Konarski of Wistula University warned even before the election that Nawrocki was a "doctrinaire" whose main goal would be to block the initiatives of the Tusk government. Konarski emphasised that the Polish president should first and foremost be a unifier, not a source of political conflict.

Although Nawrocki was able to win the trust of just over half of the electorate, the country is split almost in half. Poles showed a record turnout of 71.31% in the second round of the presidential election, indicating an extreme degree of mobilisation of both nationalist and liberal supporters.

In the wake of Nawrocki's victory, concerns about Poland's future course have increased in Europe and the United States. Indeed, as head of state, he has veto power, and has already promised to use it actively to obstruct the government's liberal reforms. Most notably judicial reform and changes to women's rights legislation, which have already caused serious friction with the European Union.

At the same time, the nationalist victory stands in stark contrast to the recent success of moderate forces in Romania, where centrist Nicusor Dan became the new president. This difference emphasises the deep divisions in Central Europe over relations with the EU.

Brussels has so far reacted with restraint, with European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen expressing confidence in maintaining productive co-operation. But it is clear that Navrocki's victory will complicate the Poland-EU dialogue, especially against the backdrop of long-standing disputes over the rule of law.

Political analyst Krzysztof Izdebski believes that "Donald Trump's voice" will now be louder in Polish politics, as Nawrocki's victory demonstrates the growing position of conservatives close to the US president.

International observers note that despite the limited powers of the Polish president, the veto power will allow Nawrocki to effectively block the initiatives of the Tusk government. Fears of political paralysis and increased internal confrontation are already being voiced.

Ukraine, the EU and the US have been closely following the Polish election, as its outcome directly affects regional stability and Warsaw's support for Ukraine. Civic Coalition spokesman Borys Budka said that Navrotsky's victory could create difficulties for the government and even contribute to attempts to "overthrow" it by blocking important decisions.