Experts explain why Putin is flying to Lukashenko

Kremlin head Vladimir Putin is flying to Minsk for a meeting with Alexander Lukashenko in order to once again lash out at Alexander Lukashenko and force him to join the war in Ukraine, an opinion expressed by analysts of the US-based Institute for War Research ISW.

According to experts, the Kremlin also wants to use the Union State to establish Russian control over Belarus. However, Lukashenko understands this and is creating information conditions to reject the Russian integration. In particular, he began to say more often that "nobody but us controls Belarus" and that "Belarus is ready to build relations with Russia, but their links must always be based on the fact that we are a sovereign and independent state.

As for a second Russian invasion of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, ISW assesses it as low, but possible:

Lukashenko is unlikely to send Belarusian troops to fight in Ukraine even together with Russian troops

At the same time, analysts believe the two presidents will discuss a separate joint information campaign aimed at breaking the will of the West to support Ukraine:

Russia's prolonged strikes against Kiev, constant troop movements into Belarus and belligerent rhetoric are also part of this information operation

Analysts believe that Moscow is trying to convince the West to accept that Ukraine is supposedly unable to significantly change the current front line and that the war has effectively reached a stalemate. However, ISW believes that Ukraine has a good chance of recapturing a significant part of its territory in the coming months.