Budanov spoke about four scenarios for the development of events in Ukraine

The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry, Kyrylo Budanov, spoke in an interview with the Moseychuk+ project about four potential scenarios for Ukraine's future, noting that the choice of the strategic direction will be key for the further fate of the country and its people.

The first of them is the Georgian scenario. According to Budanov, it implies a lack of stable support from Western partners, internal political and economic difficulties, protracted recovery after the war, failure of integration into European structures and, as a consequence, Ukraine's return under the Kremlin's strong influence. He called such an outcome unacceptable for Ukrainian society.

The second option is the Israeli way. This scenario envisages the transformation of Ukraine into a strong fortified state with rapid modernisation of the armed forces and constant political and economic support from international allies, but without significant deployment of foreign military contingents on Ukrainian territory.

The third scenario is the South Korean model. It assumes that Ukraine does not join NATO and does not regain control over all occupied territories, but receives security guarantees from the US and allies, including a military presence on part of its territory. This allows 80 per cent of the country to function and develop in relative security.

The fourth and most alarming scenario is the Belarusian scenario. In this scenario, Ukraine loses US support and Europe is inactive, leading to the country turning into a vassal of Russia under pressure from Moscow.

These are not final predictions, but only options for the development of events. Everything depends on the path we choose," Budanov emphasised.

He emphasised that the main question is not what might happen, but what Ukraine itself wants.

According to the head of intelligence, options similar to the Belarusian and Georgian paths will not be accepted by the Ukrainian society. While models similar to the Israeli and South Korean ones seem more acceptable, although they require serious discussion. The main priority, in his opinion, should be the preservation of Ukraine's statehood, culture and national identity.

The most difficult task is to think about how to regain what has been lost, even temporarily," he added.

When asked about the possibility of creating a new global agreement similar to the Helsinki or Yalta agreements, Budanov expressed doubt that this would be realisable in the near future.