Who among Ukrainian refugees will return home: survey data

Ukraine's policy regarding the return of its citizens to their homeland is taking a new shape. While 2024 was marked by harsh statements about refugees, in early 2026, the parliament passed the law on multiple citizenship.

Of course, the decisive factor for the return of Ukrainians will be an acceptable end to the war and further EU decisions on extending or cancelling temporary protection. However, many countries are developing legal mechanisms for Ukrainians to switch to other legal statuses. And some of their compatriots will undoubtedly take advantage of this. Socportal found out who will eventually prefer to stay and who is more likely to go home.

Who is planning to return and who is not?

According to a survey by the Cedos analytical centre, a quarter of respondents (25%) would like to return to Ukraine for permanent residence, if circumstances allow. About 20% have not made up their minds yet. About 16% would prefer to live in two countries. The largest group - about 38% - is now inclined to stay abroad for a long time. At the same time, among the latter 26% still plan to visit Ukraine from time to time (for example, to go to their relatives), and 12% would like to take their relatives from Ukraine to live with them.

The researchers emphasise that no one can say with certainty what the situation in Ukraine and in their lives will be like in a year or two, so the plans are tentative. However, it is already possible to identify several groups that are more or less likely to return to Ukraine.

• Fear that the war will return

The first and main condition for return, which is mentioned by almost everyone, is security. As long as fighting continues in Ukraine and the risk of shelling remains, many people do not consider returning. People who survived the horrors of war frankly admit that they cannot live under the threat of repeating the nightmare from which they fled.

Closely linked to security is the presence of children. Parents from the frontline regions say they will not risk returning until the threat to their children's lives is nullified. Even those who travelled to Ukraine for a short time admitted that they left their children abroad because they were afraid to take them during air raids. Families with children are more likely to wait for the war to end and for stable security before deciding to return.

Even if active hostilities cease, displaced people from areas bordering the Russian Federation express serious concerns. In their opinion, the proximity to the border with Russia will continue to pose risks for a long time to come. In addition, the survey showed that for 36% of the respondent,s one of the most important factors is security in their hometown or village. For 12% of respondents, it is also important that their locality should be liberated from occupation - this is relevant primarily for the natives of the currently occupied territories.

• Whether there is a place to return to

The material aspect of the question is the next decisive factor. People assess whether there is something to return to in practical terms. For example, about 31 per cent of displaced people now have no housing where they could return to live. Some of them have a house destroyed or left on the occupied territory, others have never had a home. The remaining 69% of respondents, on the contrary, count on some kind of housing in Ukraine: 48% - on their own, 15% - on housing with relatives, another 6% - plan to rent housing after their return. As Socialportal previously wrote, the availability of one's own housing is one of the decisive factors in deciding whether to stay or leave Ukraine. If a person or a family has to rent accommodation, it is more favourable and safer to do so in the EU due to better regulation and availability of social housing.

This is why many people are deterred from returning by the lack of housing or work. Resettlers from the occupied territories often said that they literally have nowhere to return to - there is no home, the infrastructure has been destroyed, and it is extremely difficult to find a job. Even moving to another Ukrainian city would require solving the same problems - where to live and what to live on. Many people want to return to their hometown or village. People are strongly attached to their small homeland, and even if they had to temporarily find refuge elsewhere, they continue to consider the very settlement from which they were pushed out by the war as their home.

There is also a category of people who would like to return, but later, when the necessary conditions appear. In addition to security, such conditions include economic stability and infrastructure in Ukraine. And at the same time, the longer Ukrainians stay in the EU, the less likely they are to return, because as time passes, they take deeper roots in the new place.

• Search for professional fulfilment

Some people who could not fulfil themselves professionally abroad are already thinking about returning. For example, some highly qualified specialists who failed to find a job in their speciality are thinking about returning to continue their career. As Socialportal previously wrote, in general, about half of IDPs were able to find a job in the host country. However, due to the need to undergo lengthy local certification, difficulties due to a lack of knowledge of the local language, even if they have good English, lack of work experience abroad and local recommendations, good jobs are not available to everyone. As a result, the picture on the labour market is mixed, and on average, the financial situation of Ukrainian refugees in the EU cannot be called favourable. However, the situation on the labour market in Ukraine is even more complicated. After three years of war, a new trend can be observed - while in the beginning it was mainly residents of big cities with a high level of education and, accordingly, higher expectations who left, now women from working professions who cannot support themselves and their families in Ukraine are trying to leave.

• Maintaining a connection with Ukraine

An important psychological aspect influencing the desire to return was the feeling of connection with Ukraine. Resettlers who have maintained strong ties with their homeland, who regularly communicate with loved ones left in Ukraine and visit Ukraine, are more confident about the prospect of returning. Most Ukrainians abroad try to live in two worlds at the same time, keeping in touch with their homeland and following events, but organising their everyday life away from home. Apart from personal attachments and a sense of patriotism, many realise that at any moment, circumstances may force them to leave their host country.

At the same time, Ukrainians, whose ties with their homeland are closer, are less likely to fear that they will be misunderstood or judged at home. But those who feel disconnected from Ukrainian life may have concerns about negative attitudes. They would like to meet understanding and support upon their return, not judgement. It is noteworthy that Danil Hetmantsev, an MP from the presidential party, has also recently stated that all discussions about refugees as "not citizens" and "not Ukrainians" are unacceptable.

• Living conditions at home

In addition to the social atmosphere, returnees will also need specific assistance. Several studies agree that housing is the primary need. It is therefore important for the state and international organisations to provide temporary housing programmes or rent compensation for such families. Secondly, work: people fear unemployment and need assistance in finding employment. Although, as mentioned above, the search for professional fulfilment may be a reason for refugees to return home, this is relevant for a rather narrow category of highly qualified professionals. For the majority, what is important is assistance in finding a job (including improvement of the employment service) and temporary financial support, such as unemployment allowance, for the first time. Third, some will need assistance in starting their own business, start-up grants or loans and favourable conditions for entrepreneurship.

Equally important for Ukrainians who plan to return is to have access to quality health care and social services. 28% of respondents named access to medicine as one of the key factors in their decision to return. Especially vulnerable categories - people with disabilities, the elderly, single parents - mentioned the need for social services (12% mentioned this factor). Resettlers say that it is important for them to be sure that if their health deteriorates or a difficult life situation arises, they will not be denied help in their home country. In addition, families with children are also concerned about education: whether the children will be able to return to Ukrainian schools and kindergartens without losing the quality of education. Children who studied abroad and are not familiar with the Ukrainian programme may need adaptation and additional support to get back on track in their home country. Parents ask that such measures be considered so that their children are not traumatised by the repeated change of environment. The Ukrainian Ombudsman adds to this list the need for psychological support for those who intend to return. Without fulfilment of these conditions, a tendency can still be observed when people, pushed by poverty or the search for better prospects for themselves or their children, leave Ukraine.

What is needed for Ukrainians to return

Research shows the multifaceted nature of Ukrainian refugees' experiences: each of them made a difficult decision to leave, went through the ordeal of adaptation and now faces a difficult choice - to return or not.

More inclined to consider a return:

• Some of the highly qualified professionals who cannot prove their qualifications in the EU;
• Those who can return to their home communities rather than being forced to become UPOs inside Ukraine;
• Those who frequently visit Ukraine, stay in touch and better understand what is happening in their home country.

More wary of return are:

• families with children;
• people who have directly experienced the horrors of war;
• those whose home is on the front line or under occupation.

Obviously, for many families, the final decision to return will depend on the end of the war and the creation of conditions for normal life in Ukraine. We can already identify several key areas to be worked on to facilitate the return of our citizens and to keep in touch with those who are still abroad.

On the one hand, it is a question of solving internal social problems - according to the European Commission's assessment, it is these that Ukraine copes with the worst among the EU candidate countries. The legislative initiatives of recent years aimed at austerity and concentration of resources in the conditions of war have eventually created conditions that push people to migrate and reduce Ukraine's prospects of joining the EU.

On the other hand, according to Cedos analysts, Ukraine needs to strengthen its support for its citizens abroad. For example, to conduct regular monitoring of the problems faced by Ukrainians in different countries. Provide information about the host country, its basic laws and regulations, ways to find a job, rules of renting accommodation, education, and medicine. Involve the Ukrainian diaspora in the integration and adaptation of migrants. To develop the capabilities of Ukrainian consulates abroad so that they could serve more people. Expand the list of documents that can be obtained online.

It is also important, according to the researchers, to maintain involvement in the Ukrainian cultural field, to create Ukrainian cultural centres abroad. Especially to maintain the connection of children with the Ukrainian educational and cultural space and to create conditions for children to return to a Ukrainian school. For example, to provide adaptation courses at schools, to explain the procedure of using certificates received abroad when entering Ukrainian universities.

According to several studies, the majority of Ukrainians who were forced abroad do not lose touch with their homeland and are ready to return - if the necessary conditions are created: security, housing, work, support of the state and society. But return is not an instantaneous step, but a long-term process that requires thoughtful preparation now. Taking care of citizens abroad, maintaining trust and communication with Ukraine, is a guarantee that after the wa,r they will be able to return and start life at home again.