ISW explains what will give Lukashenko the middle ground between Prigozhiniy and the Kremlin

Alexander Lukashenko will use his mediation of the Yevgeny Prigozhin mutiny to delay the formalisation of the Union State of Russia and Belarus or prevent Putin from using Belarusian forces in Ukraine. This is what the Institute for the Study of War(ISW) experts write in their report.

It is noted that Yevgeny Prigozhin, according to the agreements between Lukashenko and Putin, should go to Belarus. Only in this case he is allegedly acquitted of all criminal charges, including his mercenaries, who threatened to "take Moscow. Peskov, Putin's press secretary, commenting on the situation, said that "the Kremlin is grateful to Lukashenko for helping to avoid bloodshed in the country".

The Institute for the Study of War pointed out that the mutiny on Russian territory demonstrated to the Kremlin just how weak its army is and how easily the enemy can move around the country.

Prigozhin's mutiny has demonstrated that Russian forces lack reserves in many rear areas and will almost certainly worsen the morale of the Russian military in Ukraine, which Ukrainian forces can use to correct attempts to break through Russian defences, experts have pointed out.

The report said that the role of the Vagner PMC in the Kremlin's military and political games will decrease in the future. A number of regional leaders will turn away from the PMC, as well as some of its own mercenaries.

It is also noted that Prigozhin almost certainly planned the mutiny in advance, given the coordination and speed of movement of Vagner, but ISW cannot confirm this hypothesis.

Prigozhin's mutiny and the denouement of events on 23-24 June - while not necessarily a full-on Prigozhin-Kremlin fight - is likely to cause significant damage to Putin's power and the Russian military effort in Ukraine, experts say.

The suggestion that Prigozhin's uprising, the Kremlin's response and Lukashenko's mediation were staged by the Kremlin is noted to be absurd.