ISW assesses possibility of terrorist attack at ZNPP

The Russians are unlikely to intend to create an emergency situation at ZNPP, but such a development cannot be ruled out. This was stated by analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The experts pointed out that the consequences of the accident at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant could be quite devastating for the Russians as well. They will not be able to control them, according to representatives of the Institute. In their opinion, the Russians will continue to use the ZNPP for verbal threats and pressure on the West.

At the same time, experts note that three scenarios of development of the situation at ZNPP, which the Russians are considering, are probable.

• Dump irradiated water from ZNPP into the Kakhovka reservoir to prevent Ukraine from crossing the already largely drained reservoir.
• Create a radioactive plume to cover a large area in southern Ukraine, although the reactors are designed to make this difficult.
• To cause an accident with a small radius to prevent the Ukrainian Armed Forces from advancing near the ZNPP itself.

According to analysts, neither scenario would give the Russian Federation an advantage in the battle, but it would create large environmental risks for a large area.

However, whatever happens, the Russian Federation will blame it on Ukraine.

Zakharova's absurd considerations are typical of the Kremlin's information operations about alleged threats to the safety of the ZNPP. The Kremlin has regularly resorted to threats of nuclear escalation and warned of threats to the ZNPP, created mainly by Russia, in an attempt to pressure Ukraine to restrain its military actions and prevent further Ukraine by the West," ISW noted.

It should be noted that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the Russian Federation was preparing an act of terrorism at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant with the subsequent release of radiation. And Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry's State Security Service, said that the occupiers had mined the cooling stack at the plant.