The Russian offensive is faltering. An overview of the situation at the front

This is what senior international affairs correspondent Rolad Oliphant writes in the Telegraph, BBC Україна reports.

At least this spring, when, amid a shortage of weapons, soldiers and fortifications on the Ukrainian side, the Russians launched their most massive offensive since the invasion began. Less than two months remain until the end of the summer military season, but the Russians have so far failed to achieve their ambitious goals, the article said.

The advance of Russian troops has been very slow and with heavy losses. According to the British Ministry of Defence, the Russians lost 1,262 fighters daily in May and 1,162 in June. Such figures were the highest losses in manpower during the full-scale war.

But the Russians are not stopping their offensive, sometimes at a dangerous rate. This week, journalist Yuri Butusov wrote about the "critical situation" near Pokrovsk, where Russian forces have managed to advance at once 6 kilometres in a week. If the Russians manage to take Pokrovsk, as well as Mirnograd, 14 kilometres away, the entire Dnipropetrovsk region could be under direct threat, the article said.

Michael Coffman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Development, said that “the worst (for Ukraine - Ed.) scenario has been avoided, but the situation is still on a negative trajectory”.

Ukraine will lose more territory in the near future, says the expert, who recently returned from a trip to the frontline.

However, at the beginning of the Russian summer offensive, there were speculations about a blitzkrieg, which would allow the Russians to reach as far as Kyiv. Now, such a possibility is not considered at all. But the occupation of the Donetsk region is still one of their main goals. And if peace talks begin (and the Kremlin is betting on Donald Trump, who may cut aid to Ukraine if he wins the US election), the Russians will hold on to whatever they have managed to occupy until then.

In case they manage to capture Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Pokrovsk at that time, they can render it as a victory for their domestic audience, the article said.

The Russians retain an advantage in manpower, weapons and equipment, but that could be depleted by the end of this year. So they want to maximise the window of opportunity for an offensive.

What happened on the Kharkiv direction

The massive attack on Kharkiv on 10 May, which was carried out from Russian territory for the first time since 2022, had two goals, the Telegraph writes:

• to create a buffer zone to prevent Russian strikes and raids in the Belgorod region
• to divert the main Ukrainian forces from Donbass.

The first of these clearly failed. Russian forces quickly lost momentum and began to lose territory. Now they are divided into two groups near Volchansk and Luk, writes the publication.

About the second target, the success was greater. Ukraine was forced to transfer some forces to Kharkivshchina on other directions on the front. The Ukrainians' lack of mobile reserves is obvious: all recent Russian successes in the direction of New York, Toretskaya, Pokrovskaya are the result of this. What is most surprising (and most invested in the style of Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov) is that the Russians have not capitalised on the successes in Kharkivshchina.

It is now clear that the Russians launched their offensive in Kharkiv a month earlier than planned, says Michael Kauffman.

The idea was to take the Ukrainians by surprise. But as a result, the offensive stalled and the Russians themselves were forced to move their troops from Donbass to Kharkiv. Perhaps this saved the Ukrainians from the collapse of the front.

The fighting in Donbas is not stopping

In the Donbass, Russian troops have begun to slowly advance.

The situation is as follows: the Russians are using the same brutal tactics as they did at Bakhmut - they advance a lot of people, lose a lot of people and advance a few metres and take a couple of streets in the same villages, - said former Ukrainian Defence Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk, - Basically, it's a very slow movement, but they are moving.

This poses a significant threat to Pokrovsk, and from there it's already several kilometres to the critical road connecting it to Konstantinovka and strategically important by Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka and Slovanskoye.

If the Russians succeed in capturing New York and Toretsk, Vremya Yar from the south and Konstantinovka from the southeast will be under threat. Further only a step to Kramatorsk and Slavyanskoye, and this is already a direct threat to all Ukrainian positions in the Donetsk region, writes the publication.

At the same time, as Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the US-based Institute for International Policy, notes, the Russians are concentrating their attacks on areas with weaker Ukrainian units. For example, the offensive on Toretsk and New York, which began a month ago, coincided in time with the fact that the Ukrainians decided to replace the relatively strong brigade holding this area with relatively weaker ones, which were transferred from Vremya Yar. According to the observations of Yuri Butusov and Deep State, happened in the Pokrovsk direction as well.

New tactics

Russian attacks often involve only six or eight fighters attempting to infiltrate and gain a foothold in “no man's land.” This is the result of a problem faced by both sides: an offensive with traditional weapons: as the Russians tried to do at Ugledar and Avdeyevka, or Ukrainian forces last summer at Zaporizhzhya: ends up with nothing but a pile of mangled equipment.

This year, the Russians have come up with two answers to this problem. One consists of a "mangal tank" that clumsily advances through no man's land, taking a lot of fire and clearing the way for the infantry to advance. The second - in waves of flying stormtroopers on motorbikes, who at breakneck speed are trying to cross the front line before they are hit by enemy fire, and get a foothold already in his trenches, writes the publication.

But none of this has become a miracle weapon in this war.

The bottom line is this: there are no good options for attacking tightly fortified positions, says Rob Lee.

But such flawed tactics have had some success, especially when accompanied by the dropping of guided bombs, which the Russians have begun to use.

They are very powerful psychologically: in one blow, they can destroy the very building in a position that traditional artillery took weeks to destroy during the Bakhmut offensive, explains Michael Kauffman.

What are the predictions

The most pessimistic predictions for this summer were based on a critical shortage of shells, soldiers and prepared fortifications on the Ukrainian side. All three problems are gradually beginning to be addressed.

In April, President Zelensky signed a new law on mobilisation. The publication writes that the number of those mobilised has increased many times, and they will be at the front in the coming months. Also in April, the US approved a long-awaited aid package. This unfroze arms supplies, which will significantly reduce, if not override, Russian superiority in weapons. F-16 fighter jets are also expected to arrive. Which means Russia is unlikely to have a battlefield advantage until winter.

And Moscow has its own problems. Stocks of heavy equipment are gradually running low. And Russian contract workers have recently had their pay raised - which could indicate that the Russians have a problem with manpower. And that will reduce the tempo of Russian operations at some point, the article said.

But the dangers of the next few months remain very acute as well. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky said the Russians have a “1:2 or 1:3” advantage over the Ukrainians in equipment. According to Yuriy Butusov, the crisis around Pokrovsk is due, among other things, to the lack of fortifications and a lack of coordinated command. In addition, many Ukrainian military resources are still attached to Kharkiv region. In short, Russian attacks will continue at least until September. But the battle for Donbass, as bloody as it may be, may not be decisive in this war.

It is becoming increasingly clear: whoever controls the next 20 kilometres in Donetschyna will not strategically change the picture of this war, - says Mike Kauffman, - The key is not to deplete military resources on the front, but to inflict attrition and destruction on each side in order to explode the ability to continue the war.