The coming year will be a difficult and dangerous period for Ukraine - The Economist

The war provoked by Russia may have entered a period of military stalemate and the coming year will be a difficult and dangerous period for Ukraine. This is according to a piece in The Economist.

The counter-offensive, which began in June, has made modest gains on the flanks of Bakhmut and in the south, in the Zaporizhzhya region. At the moment, the defenders are faced with limited ammunition supplies and wet weather, which will affect the intensity of the AFU's advance," the article says.

The author of the material assumes that in the winter will begin a new intensive campaign of long-range strikes from both sides as both sides accumulate weapons. In particular, he did not rule out that the Russian Federation will again attack the Ukrainian energy system, while Ukraine will launch strikes on the Russian-occupied Crimea, which will be facilitated by a small dose of ATAX missiles supplied by America.

According to the author of the material, much will depend on how quickly the armies will restore personal losses at the front. He also pointed out that if Putin decides to go on a new attack, he will need to announce a new mass mobilisation.

The piece said Russian Federation is preparing to withstand a long standoff and has ramped up defence production and could produce more than 2 million shells during 2024, as well as hundreds of new and refurbished tanks. North Korea is also sending huge numbers of shells, further boosting Russia's firepower.

Western governments invested later, so Ukraine is unlikely to have an advantage in artillery ammunition - the single most important factor at the tactical level - until late 2023 or early 2024," the author of the article says.

He also recalls that the allies are not providing the much-needed massive assistance with equipment and weapons to Ukraine.

The key decision for Western governments is whether they will reopen production lines for the manufacture of weapons that they themselves no longer operate, or whether they will transfer confidential intellectual property to Ukrainian factories," the article says.

According to the author of the material, the second key challenge for the Ukrainian army in 2024 is the training and education of the military. In his opinion, the right tactics on the battlefield can play an important role even in the absence of the necessary number of ammunition.

If neither side can create a meaningful offensive threat in 2024, the war is likely to be dominated by factors beyond the battlefield. The Black Sea could become increasingly central, with Russia attacking cargo ships and Ukraine striking Russian fleet and facilities," he predicted.

He also emphasised that the NATO summit in Washington in July would be seen as a test of Western support for Kiev. He added that the main task for the allies remains "not to get tired" of helping Ukraine.