Russia pulls troops to Kharkiv border - Sky News

The Russian army is building up its military presence near Ukraine's northern border in the Kharkiv Region. According to Sky News, analysts and military experts regard the grouping as a possible preparation for a new offensive, but the specific goals and scale remain unclear.

Up to 50,000 Russian troops on the border

After Ukrainian forces were pushed out of areas near the Kursk region, Russian units of up to 50,000 troops have concentrated near the borders with Kharkiv Oblast. The chief of staff of the 13th Operational Brigade, Andriy Pomagaybus, said that the enemy is actively pulling up forces to the contact line and attempting assaults.

On the whole, they have not succeeded so far, but signs of preparation for more active offensive actions are obvious," he said.

Analysts: we may be talking about an offensive on Kharkiv or Sumy

Sky News military observer Michael Clarke links the redeployment of Russian troops with the end of combat operations in Kursk region. He emphasises that some elite units, including airborne paratroopers, remain near the Ukrainian border. This may indicate readiness to participate in a larger operation.

Among the possible targets he names Kharkiv itself or adjacent territories liberated by Ukraine in autumn 2022, as well as Sumy. However, Clark believes that a direct attack on Kharkiv or Sumy would be extremely difficult: both cities are well fortified, especially Kharkiv, which has been named Hero-City of Ukraine.

Now both sides are fighting exhausting battles, and this reduces their opportunities for a strategic breakthrough," he said.

The Kremlin has four months

Military analyst Jack Watling of Britain's RUSI Centre believes that Russia has a limited window - about four months - to achieve meaningful results on the front. After that, resource shortages and weather conditions will begin to take their toll.

Russia doesn't have the military skills to manoeuvre quickly, so it will probably try to expand the front gradually," Watling said. He also warned that Soviet equipment stocks are coming to an end, and further offensive will depend on the Russian industry's ability to produce new equipment.

Experts say possible new Western sanctions could have a serious impact on Russia's ability to replenish losses and maintain the intensity of fighting.