Romania says whether they believe in Ukraine's victory over Russia

Almost half of Romanian residents believe that Moscow has a better chance of winning the Russian-Ukrainian war. This is evidenced by the results of an INSCOP poll commissioned by the New Strategy Centre.

According to the survey, 44.5% of respondents predict a victory for Russia, while only 23.4% believe in Ukraine's success. Another 32.2 per cent could not make up their mind or refused to answer.

This is a sharp reversal of public opinion compared to May 2022: then 50% of Romanians expected Ukraine to win and only 26.1% expected Russia to win.

Political sympathies have a noticeable impact on evaluations. Among supporters of the far-right Alliance for the Unification of Romanians, 61 per cent are convinced of a Russian victory. Among the voters of the Social Democrats, 38% hold this opinion, among the National Liberals - 26%, and among the supporters of the Union for the Salvation of Romania - 30%. At the same time, the belief in Ukraine's victory is stronger among the electorate of the Union of Salvation of Romania and National Liberals - there up to 50% expect Kiev's success.

The majority of Romanians also believe that the end of the war depends primarily on Moscow: 53.3% believe that peace is possible only after the withdrawal of Russian troops and the return of the occupied territories to Ukraine. At the same time, 35.4 per cent believe that Kiev should make concessions to end hostilities.

More than 60 per cent of respondents doubt that the war will end this year: 38.5 per cent call such a scenario "very unlikely", and another 24.5 per cent call it "quite unlikely".

The poll was conducted from 28 December to 6 February among 1,100 adult respondents. The margin of error is about 3%.

Against the backdrop of these sentiments, Politico reported on 13 February on another alarming trend: residents of the United States, Canada, Britain, France and Germany increasingly admit the likelihood of a third world war in the next five years. More than 40% of respondents believe this scenario is more likely than not - but not everyone is ready to support an increase in defence spending to prevent a global conflict.