Occupiers switch from attacks to defence in Bakhmut

A May 5 report by the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicates that the Russian Defence Ministry has changed its strategic focus from capturing Bakhmut to preparing for a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive. This new direction causes potential problems for the mercenaries of the Wagner PMC and their founder Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Analysts note that "desperation and deep anger" can be seen in the video footage, where the leader of the mercenaries, Prigozhin, allegedly threatening to announce a possible withdrawal of Vagner PMC mercenaries from Bakhmut in case they are not provided with the necessary supplies. Despite a shift in focus by the Russian Defence Ministry, which could seriously threaten Wagner's ability to operate effectively, the mercenaries continued to attempt to take over Bakhmut entirely, despite limited access to ammunition.

"Wagner's persistence in Bakhmut contradicts the overall slowdown of Russian offensive operations in other areas in Ukraine, as the Russian regular army appears to be shifting its focus to prepare for the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive," the report said.

Experts note that the losses suffered by Wagner in Bakhmut, together with a possible de-prioritisation of efforts by the Russian Defence Ministry, could put Prigozhin and his mercenaries in a particularly difficult position.

It is not yet known whether Prigozhin actually plans to withdraw his fighters from Bakhmut on May 10 or whether this statement was made in a desperate attempt to gain support from the Ministry of Defence. "If Wagner retreats, they will probably need the help of the Russian military to provide protection and facilitate the withdrawal," the report noted.

In addition, ISW analysts believe that the Russian military lacks sufficient reserves to fill the positions that Wagner's mercenaries may leave in Bakhmut.

According to ISW's assessment, the significant losses incurred by the Wagner PMC in Bakhmut in an effort to achieve tactical goals, as well as the general change of the Russian military to a more cautious stance, preparing for defensive operations, seem to provide Ukrainian forces with prospects for successful counterattacks in various areas ahead.