No Xi and no deal: what to expect from the EU-China summit

When European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa leave for Beijing on 24 July, analysts doubt that their trip will bring real results.

According to an article in Politico, Brussels and Beijing have "99 problems," and the summit "will solve none of them."

Von der Leyen, in a recent speech to MEPs, criticised China's policies - from state subsidies to overproduction to price dumping, "systematic" discrimination against foreign companies and export restrictions.

"China has a completely different system," she emphasised. - The country has unique tools to go beyond the rules: it can 'flood global markets with subsidised surplus production' not just to support its industries, but to 'stifle international competition'."

The summit, marking the 50th anniversary of EU-China diplomatic relations, increasingly resembles a symbolic event with no tangible results. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has virtually ignored the EU already this year - he declined an invitation to come to Brussels - and it seems unlikely that he will come to Beijing either. The event, originally scheduled for two days, is now limited to one day - 24 July - and will be chaired by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang.

Natixis chief economist for APAC Alicia Garcia-Herrero was clear:

"As a European, I would say don't go, don't agree to it."

At the same time, the EU and the US are rushing to conclude a temporary trade agreement before US duties resume on 1 August. If such a deal is struck before the summit, Beijing is certain to respond with mirror measures, as it has already warned that it will continue to respond to deals that infringe on its interests. A source in the Chinese business sector called von der Leyen's speech "quite hawkish and alarming" and noted that the EU can talk about co-operation with China one day and the next day behave like the Cold War. Under such circumstances, the summit seems problematic.

The Chinese side insists it is acting according to the rules.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said Beijing "takes full account of the reasonable needs and interests of different countries and considers export licence applications in accordance with laws and regulations". Brussels is also concerned about the growing transfer of trade flows in its favour after the US imposed high tariffs on Chinese goods. In April, the EU launched a mechanism to monitor this effect: so far there is no clear trend, but exports from China to the EU have increased markedly in sectors such as chemicals, textiles and machinery. Finally, China has imposed additional restrictions on exports of rare earth metals, which directly threatens European industry, as China supplies almost 99 per cent of the EU's needs for these strategic materials.

Unlike previous summits, the EU and China are not planning a joint declaration at the end of this meeting: only a general press release is planned, as last year. The high-level dialogue on trade has been cancelled, and Brussels is refusing to sign a new climate statement until Beijing steps up its emissions cuts.

"It's not that we're closing the door ... Rather, it's that it hasn't even been opened," one European official noted, adding that such signals are being sent to both China and the United States at the same time.

According to experts, in such a scenario, there is no reason to expect concrete results - the summit risks turning into a formal clarification of relations rather than the achievement of any new agreements.