Migration trends: more and more Ukrainians decide to return home

Ukrainians have started entering the country more actively than leaving it. For the third week in a row after the New Year, the entry flow exceeds the exit flow. This was reported by Interfax-Ukraine with reference to data from the State Border Service.

From 17 to 23 January, the total passenger flow across the Ukrainian border decreased by another 13.3% and amounted to 419 thousand people. At the same time, 205 thousand people crossed the border to leave Ukraine (against 235 thousand a week earlier), and 214 thousand people crossed the border to enter Ukraine (against 248 thousand).

The number of vehicles crossing the border has been kept at the level of 109 thousand for the third week. At the same time, the number of vehicles with humanitarian goods increased - up to 450 against 394 a week earlier.

As of Saturday evening, queues were recorded only at one checkpoint on the entire western border - "Ustilug" on the border with Poland, where about 20 cars were waiting.

Compared to the same period last year, the current figures are lower. Then 220 thousand people left Ukraine in seven days, and 233 thousand entered. The flow of cars was also higher - 119 thousand, which border guards partly attribute to weather conditions.

Despite the current preponderance of entries over exits, the overall migration dynamics over the years of the war remains negative. According to the State Border Service, in the second year of the full-scale war, exit exceeded entry by 25 thousand people, in the third year - already by 187 thousand, and since the beginning of the fourth year - by 173 thousand.

The National Bank of Ukraine has also revised its forecasts. If in spring it was expected net inflow in 2026 at the level of 0.2 million people, then in July inflationary report the forecast worsened to a net outflow of 0.2 million. The NBU believes that a sustainable net return of Ukrainians will not begin until 2027 and will be much smaller than previously expected.

According to the National Bank's estimates, about 5.8m Ukrainians remain abroad now.