Intelligence agency says when Putin could attack NATO countries

After the war against Ukraine is over, Russia may be ready for a full-scale military clash with NATO in as little as six years - provided that international sanctions are eased or lifted. This is stated in the annual national security threat assessment published by Lithuanian intelligence on 6 March, Reuters wrote.

According to analysts, Moscow has already started to strengthen its military presence near the borders of the Alliance countries. They are talking about the expansion of military units and the creation of new military training centres based on units that gained combat experience in the war against Ukraine.

The report notes that the Russian leadership plans to significantly increase the size of the army. In the long term, it may become 30-50 per cent larger than the one that existed before the full-scale invasion in 2022. At the same time, the Kremlin intends to modernise the armed forces, restore strategic weapons stocks and carry out a technological upgrade of the army.

The Lithuanian intelligence agency stresses that Moscow's ultimate goal remains to change the balance of power in Europe in its favour, as well as the complete subjugation of Ukraine.

Separately, the document refers to the role of China. According to Lithuanian experts, Beijing's support allowed the Russian military-industrial complex to partially compensate for the consequences of Western sanctions and reduce dependence on foreign technologies.

Experts warn that after the end of hostilities, excessive arms production in Russia could become an additional factor of instability and a threat to global security.

The report also mentions hybrid operations. In particular, Lithuanian authorities link a series of incidents with parcel bombings in 2024 on the territory of the EU to Russian military intelligence. According to them, such sabotage could lead to human casualties and is seen as part of a wider pressure campaign.