How Trump's re-election has caused political division in Europe. New study

The re-election of Donald Trump as US president has provoked a deep political crisis in Europe, changing not only the countries' domestic politics but also their global standing, according to authors Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

According to an ECFR survey of 16,000 people in 12 European countries, Trump's second term has caused a fundamental shift in European political identity.

"In just six months, the US has shifted from defending liberal democracy and free trade to promoting illiberalism and protectionism," the authors note.

This has dramatically changed the balance of political power in Europe.

"Europe's right-wing parties now advocate not just national sovereignty against a federal EU, but have become part of a transnational movement for civilisational nationalism," argue Krastev and Leonard.

Supporters of Europe's populist parties are no longer a protest electorate.

"A majority of supporters of all 10 far-right parties surveyed believe that Trump's re-election will have a positive impact on the United States," the ECFR study says.

Moreover, far-right parties in Europe have begun to actively adopt the US president's policies on migration and weakening state bureaucracies.

The authors also emphasise that Europe is now divided not on the basis of pro- or anti-American sentiment, but into supporters and opponents of Trump's policies. For example, unlike the situation with the 2003 Iraq war, Eastern European countries now support the US not because of traditional pro-Americanism, but because they have stronger positions of far-right parties.

At the same time, the authors express doubts whether Europe's far-right parties will benefit from this process in the long term.

"On the one hand, Trump's victory shows that the rise of such parties to power is possible. On the other hand, if people's attitudes towards Trump's policies change, it is the far-right parties that will be the main losers," the experts warn.

Changes are also taking place among traditionally pro-American parties in Europe. For example, Germany's Christian Democratic Union is now positioning itself as a defender of national sovereignty against "ideological interference" from Washington. The most striking example of this turn is Denmark, where, according to a poll, 86 per cent of citizens are convinced that the American political system is unworkable. The authors elaborate:

"People turn radically away from the US not when Trump criticises Europe, but when he threatens their country's national sovereignty."

In addition, Trump's re-election has dramatically increased Europeans' security anxiety. Fears of nuclear conflict and a new world war have become pan-European. According to the survey, most Europeans are in favour of increased military spending, continued support for Ukraine even if the US withdraws from it, and the introduction of compulsory military service.

In most countries, except Italy and Hungary, more than 60 per cent of respondents are in favour of a European nuclear deterrent, with some countries even discussing their own national nuclear forces.

Despite recognising the risks, Europeans remain hopeful that Trump will not withdraw US troops from Europe and that transatlantic relations will recover after he leaves the White House.

"The main paradox is that Europeans, while realising the threat of Trump's policies, still believe in a quick restoration of relations," the authors conclude.