How many Ukrainians will return after the war - UN forecast

The UN estimates that between 3 and 3.5 million citizens who travelled abroad may return to Ukraine after the end of the full-scale war, a representative of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Bernadette Castel-Gollingsworth, has said at a briefing. A representative of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees in Ukraine, Bernadette Castel-Gollingsworth, said this at a briefing, UNIAN reported.

The forecast is based on a special UNHCR model, which takes into account return routes, social composition of refugees and conditions for their successful reintegration. According to Castel-Gollingsworth, the prolongation of the war reduces the willingness of people to return both from abroad and among internally displaced persons (IDPs).

The longer people live in the countries that took them in, the less likely they are to decide to return," the UN official emphasised.

The data shows a clear decline in readiness to return: while in July 2024, 61 per cent of Ukrainian refugees wanted to return, by December 2025, 49 per cent of them remained. Among IDPs, the figure dropped from 73 per cent to 35 per cent.

In total, during the war, about 4.3 million Ukrainians received temporary protection in other countries. Modelling shows that only a fraction of them will return home. The most likely to return are elderly people, single citizens and single mothers.

At the same time, achieving peace with territorial or political compromises on the part of Ukraine may further reduce the number of those willing to return.

Separately, the UN drew attention to changes in the rules of stay of Ukrainians in the EU: after 4 March 2027, the mechanism of temporary protection will cease to operate, and the automatic right of residence will be lost. Citizens will have to apply for residence permits in accordance with the laws of each particular country.