Global warming could deprive the world of rice - study

It's about the temperature limit above which rice simply stops growing normally.

Details

Scientists analysed data from the last 9,000 years of rice cultivation, from archaeological evidence to modern agricultural observations.

They found that rice is already at the upper limit of the temperatures at which it can grow. Today it is grown in regions where the average annual temperature does not exceed about 28 °C, and about 40 °C during the hottest months.

At higher temperatures, the plant becomes stressed and loses yield.

The study found that rice has never been grown under hotter conditions in history - this is its biological limit.

And global warming is happening much faster than rice can adapt. Scientists estimate that the rate of climate change is thousands of times faster than the rate at which the crop has adapted in the past.

By mid-century, many traditional growing regions - including India and Southeast Asia - could be beyond the limits of acceptable temperatures.

Why it matters

Rice is one of the world's key foods.

It:

• provides about 20 per cent of the calories for half of the world's population
• is a source of income for more than a billion people

Reduced yields can lead to higher prices, shortages and threats to food security, especially in poor countries.

Background

Rice was domesticated about 7,000-9,000 years ago in China and eventually spread across Asia due to adaptation to cooler climates.

However, adaptation to heat has proven to be much more limited: at high temperatures, the plant's physiology simply stops working properly.

Source

The study is based on an analysis of archaeological, climatic and agricultural data. The work was published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment (2026).