Europe vs Trump's plan: two competing peace projects for Ukraine

The Telegraph has obtained a European draft of a peace settlement on Ukraine, which contrasts sharply with the Donald Trump administration's 28-point plan. While the US version has already been criticised as too favourable to Moscow, the European outline is built around strengthening Ukrainian sovereignty and long-term security guarantees.

Below are the key differences between the two approaches.

1. Ukraine's status, army and NATO

European outline:

• Explicitly enshrines: no restrictions on the size and development of Ukraine's Armed Forces and its defence industry.

• Ukraine is not obliged to be neutral and can invite "friendly forces" to its territory - that is, the de facto presence of foreign troops at Kyiv's invitation is allowed.

• NATO membership is not prohibited: accession is subject to consensus within the Alliance, as for any other country.

• Ukraine's EU membership is separately prescribed as part of a post-war political settlement.

Trump's plan:

• Provides for a hard ceiling on the size of the Ukrainian army - up to 600,000, which de facto limits the country's defence potential.

• Ukraine should constitutionally enshrine its refusal to join NATO, and the bloc itself should formally write down that it will never accept Ukraine.

• NATO pledges not to station troops on Ukrainian territory.

👉 In the end, the European project leaves Ukraine with the right to full sovereignty and further integration into NATO/EU, while Trump's plan tries to legally fix the "grey zone" and partial disarmament of Ukraine.

2. Territories and front line

European Plan:

• Demands an immediate, complete and unconditional ceasefire on land, air and sea.

• Virtually fixes the front line as the starting point for further negotiations on territories, but emphasises:

  • territorial issues are only discussed after a sustained ceasefire,

  • once an agreement has been reached, neither Ukraine nor Russia has the right to change the borders by force.

• Separately spelt out:

  • ukraine's return of control over the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant and the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant,

  • ukraine's free access to the Dnieper River and control over the Kinburn Spit.

Trump's plan:

• Immediately offers a territorial swap without the concept of a separate "first ceasefire - then negotiations" phase.

• Straightforwardly enshrines:

  • Crimea, parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions are recognised as de facto Russian, including by the US,

  • the line of contact in parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhya oblasts becomes a de facto recognised border,

  • the part of Donetsk Oblast currently controlled by Ukraine is proposed to be turned into a demilitarised "buffer zone" formally recognised as Russian territory.

• The Zaporozhye nuclear power plant under Trump's plan would start up under IAEA supervision, and the electricity generated would be split 50/50 between Russia and Ukraine.

👉 The European option is "first a ceasefire and negotiations while preserving Ukraine's legal sovereignty", the American option is to instantly consolidate major territorial concessions in favour of Russia and de facto legalise annexations.

3. Security and international guarantees

European plan:

• Provides for strong, legally binding guarantees of Ukraine's security, "along the lines of NATO Article 5" - including the participation of the US and a group of European guarantor countries.

• Allows Ukraine to decide which "friendly forces" and weapons may be on its territory.

• Fix: Ukraine remains a nuclear-free state under the NPT, but this is its informed choice in exchange for real guarantees.

Trump's plan:

• Promises Ukraine "credible security guarantees," but simultaneously:

  • ties them to rather vague conditions ("if Ukraine does not attack Russia", "does not launch a missile at Moscow/SPB without reason", etc.),

  • contains the wording that "Russia is not expected to invade neighbouring countries and NATO is not expected to expand further".

• In practice, a balance is created: Russia gets a political commitment against NATO expansion, while Western guarantees to Ukraine are tied to a complex set of conditions and territorial concessions.

👉 The European plan is built around strengthening collective security and integrating Kiev into the Western architecture, while the American plan is built around fixing "NATO non-expansion" and "stability" at the expense of Ukraine's limitations.

4. Sanctions, economy and recovery

European plan:

• Sanctions against Russia remain in place, but can be gradually and partially eased only if peace conditions are met.

• If Russia violates the agreements, there is an automatic snapback mechanism - the return of sanctions in full.

• Ukraine must be fully restored and compensated, including at the expense of Russian sovereign assets, which will remain frozen until Moscow makes amends.

• Ukraine and its partners are allowed to develop economic co-operation without restrictions after the war.

Trump's plan:

• Much more favourable to Moscow:

  • provides for the phased lifting of sanctions,

  • proposes long-term U.S.-Russian economic deals in energy, mining, infrastructure, AI, the Arctic, etc..,

  • does not rule out Russia's return to the G7/G8.

• uSD 100bn of frozen Russian assets are directed to a US-administered Ukraine recovery fund, with America receiving 50% of the profits.

• The remaining Russian assets are proposed to be injected into a separate US-Russian investment vehicle for joint projects - in fact, a financial "hook" of mutual dependence is being created to keep the sides from a new conflict.

👉 Europe proposes to use Russian assets primarily as a tool to compensate Ukraine and a lever of pressure on Moscow; Trump's plan simultaneously turns these assets into a source of profit for the US and a base for a new economic "partnership" with the Kremlin.

5. Humanitarian issues and children

European Plan:

• Demands unconditional return of all deported and illegally removed Ukrainian children, with the support of international partners.

• Provides for an all-for-all exchange of prisoners of war, the release of all civilian hostages, and a gradual easing of humanitarian restrictions (including family visits across the contact line).

Trump's plan:

• Also calls for the establishment of a humanitarian committee, the exchange of all captives and bodies, the return of all civilian hostages, including children, and family reunification programmes.

• Additionally introduces the idea of joint education programmes, fighting "Nazism" and protecting the rights of Russian speakers and minorities - language clearly echoing Russian propaganda.

👉 Both plans include a humanitarian block, but the European one emphasises the international legal return of deported children and the classic exchange of prisoners, while the American one introduces ideological formulas convenient for Moscow.

6. Europe's security architecture

European Plan:

• Closes the package with a clause on separate negotiations on a European security architecture with the participation of all OSCE states.

• That is, sees the war in Ukraine as part of a broader security problem on the continent and proposes a systematic discussion.

Trump's plan:

• Emphasizes U.S.-Russian bilateral dialogue and the creation of a joint security working group.

• Strategy: US and Russian Federation as the two key players agree "over the heads" of the others, and structures like NATO commit to "no expansion."

👉 The European approach is multilateral and institutional, the American approach is personalised and tied to a deal between Washington and Moscow.

Bottom line: two different worlds

Comparing the two documents reveals fundamentally different philosophies:

• The European plan attempts to fix:

  • the preservation of Ukrainian sovereignty and the right to choose alliances,

  • no restrictions on defence,

  • the use of sanctions and Russian assets as leverage,

  • a phased settlement prioritising a ceasefire and subsequent negotiations on territories.

• Trump's plan effectively proposes to:

  • legally enshrine Ukraine's rejection of NATO and limit its armed forces,

  • recognise Russia as a significant part of the captured territories,

  • quickly bring Moscow back into the global economy and even elite clubs,

  • turn frozen assets into a source of income and a basis for new U.S.-Russian deals.

For Kiev and most European capitals, these are two different visions of the future: either strengthening Ukraine as a full-fledged Western ally, or an attempt to "close" the war by weakening it and de facto legalising some of Russia's conquests.

Meanwhile, the first session of talks with the US delegation in Geneva has concluded

Mark Rubio, full commentary:

▪️По my personal view, we had probably the most productive and meaningful meeting we've had in this entire process that we've been involved in since the beginning.

▪️У we have very good fruits of work, which are based on input from all the participants involved. We can now go through some of these things, point by point.

▪️Думаю, we've made good progress. Our teams have just dispersed to their offices where they are working on some proposals.

▪️Сейчас we're working through some changes, refinements and hopefully narrowing down the differences and coming up with something that both sides, Ukraine and the U.S., are very comfortable with.

▪️Очевидно, it will eventually have to be signed by the presidents, but I feel quite comfortable that it will happen, given the progress that has been made.

▪️Очевидно, there is the Russian side of the equation. But we think we've had some pretty solid ideas over the last nine months about some things that have been pretty important to them.

▪️Так that the upshot of this is I think this is a very, very significant, I would say probably the best meeting and the best day we've had so far in this whole process since we first came into the office in January.

▪️Но there's still some work to do and that's what our teams will be doing now. We'll get back to you maybe a little later today with further updates. <...> Maybe in an hour or two.

Comment from Andrei Yermak:

Had a very productive meeting. Made very good progress and are moving towards a just and long term peace.

There will be a second meeting soon today where we will continue to work on joint proposals involving our European partners. The final decisions will be taken by our Presidents.