A new crater is set to form on the Moon – scientists will be watching it come into being

For scientists, this is not an accident but a rare scientific opportunity. For the first time, the location and timing of an artificial collision with the Moon are known in advance, which will allow astronomers around the world to attempt to observe, in real time, the flash of the impact, the ejection of lunar dust and the formation of a new crater.

Details

This concerns the upper stage of the Falcon 9 rocket (object 2025-010D), which in January 2025 placed two commercial landers on a trajectory towards the Moon.

Having completed its mission, the stage had exhausted its fuel and could neither return to Earth to burn up in the atmosphere nor drift off into deep space. Since then, it has been travelling in orbit until its trajectory led to an inevitable collision with the Moon.

According to current calculations, the impact is expected to occur on 5 August 2026 at around 06:35 UTC near the Einstein crater on the Moon’s near side.

The object, which is about 12 metres long, 4 metres wide and weighs approximately 4 tonnes, will strike the surface at a speed of around 8,750 kilometres per hour.

Researchers have modelled the consequences of the impact using a computer-based physical model. As the upper stage is a hollow metal structure, it will behave differently to a rocky asteroid. Instead of penetrating deep into the ground, the body will disintegrate almost instantly.

According to the authors’ estimates, the impact will create a new crater 20–30 metres in diameter, and a cloud of lunar dust will rise several kilometres above the surface.

It is this cloud that the scientists hope to observe from Earth. If observing conditions prove favourable, telescopes will be able to detect both a brief flash at the moment of impact and the subsequent ejection of material.

The authors of the article are calling on not only professional astronomers but also experienced amateur astronomers with telescopes and high-speed cameras to join the observations.

Why this is important

Such collisions are extremely rare, and it is even rarer to predict their location and time in advance.

The observations obtained will help to test models of impact crater formation and refine methods for determining the impact sites of objects on the Moon. In the long term, such data may be used in the preparation of future lunar missions, including experiments to detect lunar quakes.

However, the collision poses no danger whatsoever to either Earth or the Moon’s orbit.

Source

The paper has been published as a preprint on the arXiv server and has not yet undergone independent peer review.

Title: Observational planning for the 5 August 2026 Falcon 9 Upper Stage lunar impact.