A new asteroid could approach Earth in 2032: what scientists say

Although the chances of a strike exceed only 1 per cent, experts from NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) call for continued monitoring and vigilance, reports Phys.org.

According to Paul Chodas, director of the Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at NASA, "there is no cause for serious alarm, because the probability of a miss is about 99%. However, the object deserves special attention." The diameter of the asteroid is estimated at about 40-100 metres - this is comparable to the height of several dozen floors.

First encounter with Earth

For the first time 2024 YR4 was registered at the end of December last year thanks to a telescope in Chile. Later, scientists found that on Christmas Day, the space block approached the Earth at a distance of about 800,000 kilometres, which is twice as far as the lunar orbit. Two days after the approach, the object was officially entered into the catalogues.

Now the asteroid is moving away from our planet and will gradually become too dim for observation. Nevertheless, over the next few months, astronomers will continue to track it with the world's largest telescopes. It is important to better understand the size, shape and exact trajectory of the celestial body before it reappears in sight in 2028.

Likelihood of collision

Calculations show that if an impact does occur, it will happen on 22 December 2032. However, experts have yet to determine the exact location of a possible impact. So far, 2024 YR4 is at the top of the list of potentially dangerous asteroids ESA, because with a diameter of more than 40 metres can cause serious damage in the case of falling on densely populated regions.

It is believed that objects of this size crash into our planet every few thousand years, causing destruction at the local level. NASA emphasises that no other known large asteroid has an impact probability higher than 1%. However, the final impact risk will be updated as new data becomes available.

The way forward

In the near future, scientists hope to find traces of 2024 YR4 in archived data from 2016. If the asteroid can be "found" in the old images, orbital calculations will become more accurate, and perhaps the risk of falling to Earth will be reduced to zero. Otherwise, the probability of a collision will continue to adjust as more information is accumulated.

Although the chances are indeed slim, astronomers believe it is necessary to keep a close watch on the object. Any accurate prediction is vital because of the potential consequences for the safety and well-being of entire regions of the planet.