Why Ukrainians may not return home after the war: it's not just about security

At the same time, many of these problems could be mitigated with the help of a more balanced social policy, the editor of the SocPortal and activist of the NGO «Social Movement» Olena Tkalich noted in an interview with Cross-border Talks.

In the Opinions section, we will publish an abridged version of the interview on the topic of what gaps in social policy the state is not closing, what threatens the labor market, and what the return of millions of Ukrainians after the end of hostilities depends on.

Poverty has increased several times

Today, according to estimates by international organizations, about a third of the population in Ukraine is below the poverty line. The reason is the destruction of housing, the forced resettlement of millions of people, hidden unemployment, and a decrease in the population's income. Internally displaced persons remain particularly vulnerable, having to rent housing at market prices after evacuation.

Millions of people have lost their homes. The most pressing problem for internally displaced persons today is housing. With an average salary of about 500 euros, it is extremely difficult to pay market rent, and state support is not enough.

So Ukraine needs municipal housing. One of the key solutions is to create a large-scale program for the construction of municipal housing. Several studies show that it is the availability of affordable housing that will determine whether millions of Ukrainians from abroad will return after the war.

The return of people depends not only on security. If a family has lost their home or cannot afford rent, they are unlikely to return. Ukraine needs municipal housing that could be rented to displaced people at an affordable price.

Labor market deregulation should not occur at the expense of workers

The labor market demonstrates significant inequality in terms of wages. Currently, the worst situation is in medicine and education, which is why these industries are rapidly losing nurses, teachers, and some doctors. Many choose to work in EU countries, where the pay is much better.

Today, you can only work as a nurse or teacher because of your vocation or if your family supports you. It is practically impossible to live on these salaries on your own.

There is also a shortage of personnel in more "male" areas. The government is trying to compensate for women with retraining programs, but their scale does not yet meet the real needs of the economy.

Another serious problem remains: shadow employment. It is most widespread in construction, agriculture, and the service sector, where workers are often left without formal contracts and social protection. For the period of martial law, several moratoriums were introduced on inspections by the State Labor Service, which is supposed to combat such manifestations. But war should not become an excuse for weakening labor legislation.

Deregulation cannot mean freedom for the employer at the expense of the employee. War cannot be an excuse for curtailing labor rights or an unwillingness to fight shadow employment.

At the same time, it is indicative that Ukraine's international partners often pay more attention to the problem of illegal work than the Ukrainian authorities.

What should be the post-war social policy?

The reconstruction of the country should include not only the restoration of infrastructure, but also social reforms. Among the priority steps that we should pay attention to, borrowing from the European experience of common prosperity countries, are:

• the introduction of progressive taxation;
• strengthening control over compliance with labor legislation;
• the development of municipal housing;
• support for trade unions and collective bargaining;
• decent investments in medicine, education, and the care system.

If we want people to return to Ukraine, we need to create conditions for a decent life: affordable housing, decent wages, and a strong social protection system.