The new EU-US trade pact: who wins and who loses

POLITICO reports on the details of the deal.

According to the newspaper, despite the high importance of the agreement, its terms were clearly not in favour of the EU: most European goods are now subject to a 15% duty when exported to the US, and in return, Brussels has committed to buy American energy resources and invest in the US economy for record amounts.

Nevertheless, even in such an unfavourable agreement for the European Union there was room for some industry "winners": the automotive, aviation and semiconductor industries in Europe were able to avoid the worst consequences.

Energy

As part of the deal, the EU agreed to buy $750bn ($250bn a year) worth of US oil, liquefied natural gas and nuclear fuel annually, which, according to European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen, will help to finally get rid of Europe's dependence on Russian energy resources. However, experts are sceptical about the feasibility of such volumes: imports from the US would need to triple, and the largest energy deals depend on private companies rather than officials. Formally, US exporters win, but in practice such an increase in exports is unlikely.

Car industry

The US has lowered duties on cars and auto parts to a basic level of 15% (a similar tariff was agreed earlier with Japan), and the EU has cancelled its 10% duties on US auto imports altogether. But the details have yet to be determined: The EU has promised to work on converging standards, including possible recognition of US autopilot regulations. However, industry associations, especially in Germany, call the agreement unfavourable: tariffs on cars from Mexico remain at 25%, and it is expected that European manufacturers will be forced to move plants to the US to avoid new duties, which could cost up to 70,000 jobs in the EU.

Aviation

Both sides have agreed to zero duties on all aviation products and components, which is crucial for global manufacturing chains and aviation companies. The threat of new "air wars" has been removed, and even US airlines operating on European airliners have avoided additional costs.

Pharmaceuticals

Here the parties could not agree on a common position: Trump said that pharmaceuticals were not part of the deal, while von der Leyen argued the opposite. For now, the tariff is zero, but Washington is considering imposing a 15 per cent duty once the national security investigation (Section 232) is complete. Generics manufacturers, especially companies with small margins, are most at risk. Ireland, a major pharma hub, considers EU concessions excessive.

Technology and semiconductors

The European semiconductor industry (e.g. the Dutch ASML) has secured the removal of duties on chip equipment - a key EU victory. However, the EU has pledged to continue buying US artificial intelligence chips, increasing European technology's dependence on the US.

Digital regulation

In this area, the European Commission defended its rules: neither digital services nor taxes on IT giants were subject to concessions. New EU regulations are in place (DMA, DSA), which the US IT lobby believes are costing the industry $97.6bn a year, but the EU has so far defied pressure.

Defence

Although Trump has mentioned "massive purchases" of US weapons, there is no formal commitment from the EU. However, amid rising military budgets and NATO activity, US manufacturers could still benefit in the coming years.

Steel and aluminium

The parties seem to be returning to a quota system similar to the Biden era: above the quota there is a 50% duty. The size of the quotas has not yet been determined. The US and EU are also planning to create a "steel curtain" against cheap products from China and other countries. If this is realised, the Chinese steel industry will suffer first of all.

Agriculture and food products

Some U.S. agricultural products will receive "zero" tariffs on exports to Europe, but only so-called "non-sensitive" products (e.g., nuts, animal feed, bison). Sensitive categories, including U.S. beef, will remain subject to the previous rates. Negotiations on spirits, wines and other products are ongoing.

Investment

The EU has pledged to increase investment in the US economy by $600bn, but this clause, according to experts, is more of a symbolic nature: we are talking about the plans of private companies, not a directive from Brussels. It is still unclear whether these funds will be withdrawn from the EU economy, which will hit its growth, or will become an additional investment.

Thebottom line is that most sectors in the EU have faced higher tariffs and the need for large-scale purchases from the US, while only certain sectors - aviation, semiconductors and part of the car industry - have benefited. In general, the agreement reflects asymmetry: the US dictates the terms, while the EU tries to minimise losses and save key sectors from the worst-case scenario. The specific details of the deal and the distribution of benefits/losses will become clearer once the final text of the agreement is published and its implementation begins.