The Main Intelligence Directorate has warned of a possible Russian offensive against the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions following the latest mobilisation

Russia may be preparing a new offensive against northern Ukraine in early 2027 if it carries out a fresh wave of mobilisation this autumn. Ukrainian intelligence believes that, under such a scenario, the Russian command would be able to form a strike force by around February. This was stated by Major General Vadym Skibitsky, Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.

What might happen following mobilisation

According to Skibitsky, the likelihood of a new offensive depends primarily on whether Russia decides to carry out further mobilisation and how many people it is able to recruit.

He recalled Russia’s experience in 2022: partial mobilisation began in the second half of October, and the trained units began arriving at the front as early as December and January. Based on this, in the event of a new mobilisation, Russia could assemble a sufficiently large strike force by February 2027.

Skibitsky did not rule out that such a force could be used for offensive operations from the north, in particular towards the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions. He also noted that the Russian command might take symbolic dates into account.

There are currently no signs of preparations for an offensive

At the same time, Ukrainian intelligence is not currently detecting the necessary conditions for such an operation. According to Skibitsky, there are currently no intelligence indications that Russia is already preparing an offensive from the north, nor is there a sufficient number of troops. Therefore, this refers specifically to a possible scenario should the situation change, rather than a confirmed plan by the Russian army.

Furthermore, Russian forces are experiencing difficulties in manning certain units. In particular, according to the Main Intelligence Directorate, the recruitment of personnel into the Russian unmanned systems forces is proceeding significantly worse than planned.

Until a possible mobilisation takes place, the Russian leadership, according to Ukrainian intelligence, will seek to demonstrate results on those sections of the front where it is capable of making advances.

Critical infrastructure remains under threat

At the same time, Russia will continue to strike targets within the defence-industrial complex, military infrastructure, the energy sector, logistics and petrol stations. According to Skibitsky, the energy system and heating networks will be particularly vulnerable in winter. Gas infrastructure, gas production facilities in the Poltava and Kharkiv regions, and the water supply system are also under threat.

Bridges and other key elements of transport infrastructure remain another potential target. The Main Intelligence Directorate notes that Russian troops are already systematically attacking individual bridges in frontline regions.