Pro-European Party Victory in Moldova: What Will Happen to Pro-Russian Transnistria?

Socportal asked Moldovan sociologist, doctor of political sciences Alexandar Macukhin about how relations with Ukraine will develop in the future, what influence pro-Russian forces retain and what awaits Transnistria.

Was the victory expected?

According to Alexander Macukhin, no one doubted that the PAS party would get the first place in terms of per cent and mandates.

It was surprising that in the end PAS gained 55 mandates, i.e. a monoparty majority (for this purpose it is necessary at least 51) and moreover, improved its record in net votes - 774 thousand in the parliamentary elections of 2021 against 791 thousand in the elections now, - the expert notes.

Also unexpected, according to him, was the passage of five political organisations into parliament at once, although polls indicated four.

The main question, according to the political scientist, was whether PAS would need to go "to the chaotic populist from Our Party Renato Usatom" or other parties to create a government. At the moment, this necessity does not exist. Another surprise of the current election is that there have been "black swans" in parliament.

Young (their age is between 30 and 40) and inexperienced in real politics, but very media-savvy deputies from Vasile Kostyuk's Democracy at Home party. But no matter what is said about them, it is impossible to imagine them voting with pro-Russian forces. It would be a political suicide of the party, which painstakingly collected its 5.6 per cent rating all four years through active social networks," says Alexandru, noting that no one expected this party to pass the threshold.

How are the votes divided in Moldova and beyond its borders?

According to the political scientist, the difference in the electoral preferences of Moldovan citizens is quite tangible, especially in terms of age. The electorate of the Patriotic Bloc of Socialists is mainly elderly people who actively go to the elections. Unlike them, young people in Moldova have long been politically amorphous, but three rounds of recent elections - two rounds of presidential and the current parliamentary elections - have changed this trend, according to Alexander.

The electoral bastions of the pro-Russian bloc of Socialists, Communists and two other parties, one of which was withdrawn for using illegal funding, are the Moldovan north and Gagauzia. And at the same time - among voters from Transnistria PAS got the second place, winning even against the bloc "Alternative", which represents a morally comfortable position for some people "not everything is so clear", - says the political scientist.

The diaspora, he says, gave PAS a huge credit of trust - 78.6 per cent.

Do pro-Russian forces have other opportunities to influence?

The main painful issue, according to Alexander, remains the state of the economy.

Frankly speaking, PAS has little to boast against this background. We can say that we are three years next to heroically fighting Ukraine, but in the third year such an answer to the question causes huge scepticism even among those who eventually voted for the party," the expert notes.

Also, Russia retains influence in Transnistria, but its real level is a matter of great debate.

Perhaps it is not so comprehensive, because there is no common border and because there is its own oligarchic group formed there, which the further it goes, the more it asks the question "why do we need it?". But there is a pressure point on the whole Moldova - for example, it is possible to stop paying for gas supplies in winter to Transnistria - and then say "well, these are your, Moldovan 300 thousand people, of which one third are pensioners and generally elderly helpless people - so take them away, otherwise they will simply die of cold there", - says the political scientist.

At the same time, incitement of hatred towards Ukrainian refugees in Moldova as a factor of influence on politics is almost invisible.

But the reason for this is not related to the Moldovan context - simply international auxiliary organisations have banally run out of money for provision and humanitarian aid, and if there is no money - there is no envy formed, which was used by such fomenters. It is impossible to make people in Moldova hate those who obviously live poorly - such an approach will not work in an initially poor and small country. The logic of "they are sitting there on humanitarian aid and money from the UN and do nothing" will come down to "we have seen that humanitarian aid, a conditional bag of rice and a couple of hundred lei, who are you telling this to?

What will happen to Transnistria?

According to political analysts, another loss of pro-Russian forces in the elections may put an end to the existence of the DMR - an unrecognised state on the territory of Moldova near the border with Ukraine, where "peacekeeping" Russian troops have been stationed since 1992. There are periodic reports that Transnistria may open a second front against Ukraine from the south-west.

I do not believe in alarmist scenarios about how the "Transnistrian army" (about 10,000 people, including civilian personnel), armed with what has not rusted since the Soviet times, all as one, on the orders of the leader, will rush to Odessa in a suicidal attack. That is, they have been avoiding it for more than 3 years already, and because of the terrible offence for the results of the pro-Russian political structure in the elections in Moldova, they are unlikely to make up their minds," Alexander said.

According to him, the separate economic system of Transnistria is close to economic collapse.

And this conditional button from the IVL-gas, on which everything lives now - it is in Moscow. It seems that it is simply impossible to go on like this for a long time, and Moscow itself will eventually press it," the political scientist said.

In this regard, he said, Moldova should prepare for the reintegration of the entire region.