NBU predicts when Ukrainian refugees will start returning from abroad

The head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Andriy Pyshnyy, said at a press briefing that there is no reason to expect a mass return of Ukrainian refugees in 2024. According to the head of the National Bank, there may be about 400,000 such people. According to him, many of those who would like to return are afraid of the continuation of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine, while others have begun to settle their lives abroad and they will not be in a hurry to return.

The forecast for 2024 is quite cautious about the return of the migration flow to Ukraine. First of all, because of security risks. But the factor of assimilation, adaptation of our citizens to the life they start to build abroad has a significant impact today," he explained.

He also noted that at this time there is a slight increase in the outflow of population abroad.

His Deputy Sergei Mykolaychuk pointed out that the National Bank estimates the outflow of currency (according to the balance of payments on the article travel) on Ukrainian migrants abroad in 2022 at the level of 20 billion dollars a year, in 2023 - 18 billion dollars, in 2024 - 13 billion dollars.

The decrease is due to the fact that Ukrainians become tax residents of EU countries," he said.

And the deputy head of the NBU, Yuriy Geletiy, said that every day Ukrainians abroad withdraw about 35m hryvnias from the cards of domestic banks.