Leaked Kremlin documents reveal Russia's plan to end the war - ISW

on 7 May, the Russian investigative publication Dosier-Centre published a presentation titled "After Victory", the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has written.

It is reported that they were allegedly prepared by employees of the Russian presidential administration in order to outline the "most likely" scenario of the end of the war against Ukraine and ways to "sell" the peace agreement to the Russian population.

Factor of information warfare

The publication stresses that the Russian presidential administration probably leaked the slides as part of an information and psychological war designed to put pressure on the people and authorities of Ukraine and to present the Russian Federation as a party interested in ending the war it started with its own hands.

The proposals and strategies in the presentation are not part of Russia's official negotiating position, but the scenario they present for ending the war is similar to what the Kremlin has described as acceptable in recent months.

The leak of the presentation slides may have been deliberate to demonstrate that "Russia is ready to cede" part of Ukraine's territory in exchange for Ukraine handing over the rest of the Donetsk region.

However, the Presidential Administration falsely portrays this scenario of ending the war as a significant concession on Russia's part, as Russian forces are unlikely to be able to seize the rest of the Donetsk region militarily in the near to medium term, if at all, ISW experts emphasise.

What was in the documents

According to the Dossier Centre publication, Kremlin officials began work on the presentation in February 2026. A source close to the Presidential Administration told the Russian publication that the Kremlin prepared the presentation because of concerns about Russia's poor performance on the battlefield and the effects of the war on the Russian economy.

The "most likely scenario" for the Russians reportedly involves the US signing two separate peace agreements with Russia and Ukraine. Under the agreements, Russia hoped to gain control of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, withdraw troops from Sumy and Kharkiv regions, and fix the front line in Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.

According to this scenario, the Russians assumed that the US would lift sanctions against Russia, while European sanctions would remain in place. At the same time, according to their plan, Ukraine would receive the status of a neutral country and become a "buffer zone" between Russia and the West, while Russia would achieve "only a symbolic and restrained denazification" of Ukraine. What is "restrained denazification" the document does not specify.

At the same time, as ISW notes, in their plan, the Russians suggest that the current Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, should remain in office in the future.

Risks of continued war for Russia

The presentation noted that continuing the war in Ukraine would be risky because it would require Russia to put its entire economy on full military mode and carry out general mobilisation, as well as exacerbate Russia's demographic problems due to heavy casualties.

The presentation noted that parts of the Russian ultra-nationalist community, including military bloggers, would be very likely to oppose this peaceful scenario. As a solution, it was suggested that the Russian authorities would threaten military bloggers with liability for discrediting the army, and strengthen the voices of moderate support for the solution in media space to counter them.

The slides also discussed propaganda rhetoric to explain the peace agreement to the Russian population, including narratives that Russia allegedly "prevented a humanitarian catastrophe in Donbass and achieved maximum results without general mobilisation" and that Putin - also allegedly - "thwarted Western attempts to expand and prolong the conflict, and knows what is best for Russia".