IMF says how long electricity shortages will last in Ukraine

Electricity shortages in Ukraine will persist until 2026, with an average deficit of about 10 per cent in 2024. This is stated in a memorandum on the IMF (International Monetary Fund).

It is stressed that this is not the final forecast and the situation may worsen due to the attacks of Russian troops on Ukrainian energy facilities, and blackouts may become more widespread.

The total damage to the energy system exceeds 1bn dollars. The biggest losses were incurred by DTEK companies and state-owned enterprises, which plan to cover the losses at the expense of their own working capital and potential support from donors, including through the supply of equipment," the memorandum said.

According to the organisation's experts, if the situation does not worsen, Ukraine will be able to gradually get out of the difficult situation and fully cover its needs in electricity as early as 2026. Until that time, the electricity deficit is likely to be at the level of 10%, but during peak hours - up to 30%.

This means that industrial consumers will have to work below capacity, while household consumption will be limited by scheduled shutdowns, particularly in winter," the IMF forecasts.

They point out that the increase in light tariffs for business and household consumers is unlikely to be avoided, but the additional money will allow the industry to recover faster.

The IMF added that Ukraine should not rely on energy imports, as a significant short-term increase in electricity imports to the EU is unlikely due to infrastructure constraints in neighbouring countries.