How NASA tracks asteroids and protects the Earth
In February 2024, the name of a mysterious space visitor popped up in the news - asteroid 2024 YR4, which had a chance to crash into Earth on 22 December 2032.
The probability of a collision reached a record 3%, which made many people seriously wonder: what if it does fall?
Fortunately, after a few days, new observations reassured everyone that the risk had dropped below 1%, and the threat was cancelled. But the situation itself was a reminder that observing asteroids is important, and sharing data is even more important.
🔭 Who keeps track of asteroids?
The answer is: everyone who wants to. Data is collected by both professional astronomers and enthusiasts around the world. All the data is collected by the Minor Planet Centre, which works in partnership with NASA. Then the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) scientists take over - they calculate the trajectories and the degree of risk.
If something looks suspicious, NASA's Planetary Defence Coordination Office and the International Asteroid Alert Network (IAWN) get involved. The goal is to quickly determine how dangerous an object is and prepare a response if necessary.
🌌 How was asteroid 2024 YR4 found?
The asteroid was discovered using the NASA-funded ATLAS system. Initially, its orbit was highly uncertain - it could have passed close to Earth. As data came in from different telescopes, the picture became clearer. At its peak, calculations showed that its trajectory was almost through the Earth. But soon, new observations came in and it was clear that it would be OK.
It's important that scientists used data not only from "planetary" observatories. Helped and telescopes dealing with supernovae, and even solar observations. This confirms once again: the more data, the better the defence.
🚀 What can NASA do if an asteroid does come at us?
In 2022, NASA conducted a test: the DART spacecraft slammed into asteroid Dimorph and shifted its orbit by 33 minutes. It was a scientific experiment - and it was a success! So defence technology already exists.
Soon NASA will launch a new telescope, the NEO Surveyor. It will specifically look for asteroids that could threaten Earth. The launch is in 2027, and all the data will be open to everyone.
"The risk of colliding with an asteroid at any moment is small, but the consequences could be catastrophic," reminds Professor James Bauer from NASA. - "That's why open science is our shield."