Global study reveals alarming rise in mortality among young people

Such conclusions are presented in a new large-scale study Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023, published in The Lancet and presented at the World Health Summit in Berlin.

According to the study, the world has seen a significant decline in overall mortality since 1950 - a 67% decline when age standardisation is taken into account. Life expectancy in 2023 has reached pre-pandemic COVID-19 levels: 76.3 years for women and 71.5 years for men. However, progress is uneven: in high-income countries, life expectancy exceeds 83 years, while in sub-Saharan Africa it falls short of 62 years.

Young people are under attack: mortality rates are rising

The rise in mortality among adolescents and young adults is particularly alarming. From 2011 to 2023, the number of deaths in the high-income 20-39 age group in North America increased sharply, mainly due to suicide, drug overdoses and alcohol abuse. Similar trends are seen in the 5-19 age group in Eastern Europe, the Caribbean and the United States.

However, infant mortality declined the most over the entire period. There was a particularly positive trend in East Asia, where under-5 mortality rates fell by 68% due to improved nutrition, vaccination and strengthened health systems.

However, revised data showed that mortality in children aged 5-14 years in Africa was higher than previously estimated, primarily due to infectious diseases such as tuberculosis, respiratory infections and accidents. For women aged 15-29 years in the region, mortality was 61 per cent higher than previously estimated - mainly due to maternal deaths, road traffic accidents and meningitis.

Diseases are changing

Communicable diseases are giving way to non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including coronary heart disease, stroke, diabetes and chronic lung disease, as causes of death. COVID-19, which was leading in 2021, fell to 20th place in 2023.

While death rates from coronary heart disease and stroke have declined, diabetes, kidney disease, dementia and HIV/AIDS have increased in recent decades.

The average age of death globally has increased from 46.4 years in 1990 to 62.9 years in 2023. However, it remains the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, with women dying at an average age of 37 and men at 34.8.

Risk factors

Nearly half of all deaths and disabilities worldwide in 2023 are attributable to 88 modifiable risk factors. These include high blood pressure, air pollution, smoking, high blood sugar, overweight, high cholesterol, kidney disease, childhood stunting, lead exposure and poor sanitation.

The rate of loss of healthy life years (DALYs) due to diseases related to obesity, drugs, and high sugar continues to rise. Environmental factors are a particular threat, with air pollution and heat waves particularly affecting the health of people in South Asia, North and sub-Saharan Africa.

Mental health is also rising sharply: in recent years, the prevalence of anxiety disorders has increased by 63 per cent and depression by 26 per cent. Causes include sexual violence, domestic violence and stressors.

Priorities must shift

The study emphasises the need to shift global health priorities from tackling child mortality alone to protecting adolescents and young adults. This is particularly important in the face of declining international aid to developing countries, which the authors say threatens to further deepen inequalities.

"If health funding continues to decline, efforts to narrow the gap between rich and poor regions could be jeopardised," warned IHME Professor Emmanuela Gakidou.