Experts assessed the state of the Russian economy

This is reported by Business Insider with reference to estimates by the Carnegie Endowment for International Development.

Analysts note that despite the increase in military losses and Western trade restrictions, the Russian economy can hold on for another year and a half before it starts to weaken.

At the same time, the International Monetary Fund predicts that in 2024 the country will grow faster than all other developed economies, particularly the United States. This is attributed to the fact that Russia has found ways to circumvent sanctions, such as selling oil to allies, while importing Western goods through third countries.

The situation is paradoxical: the Russian economy is now stable both in spite of and because of Western sanctions. But this hard-won stability will not last forever. At best, the current order is likely to start falling apart within a year and a half due to growing imbalances and possible social problems," said Alexandra Prokopenko, a researcher at the Carnegie Eurasia Centre.

According to experts, Russia is now facing three big problems at once: financing the army, maintaining the standard of living of the country's citizens, and preserving stability.

It is noted that signs of weakness have already begun to surface. The Kremlin's plans to spend a record amount on the army during 2024 may also have a negative impact on the economy. The living conditions of Russians may also begin to deteriorate.

Although economists say Russians are living mostly normal lives so far, inflation has soared, prompting the central bank to raise interest rates to a whopping 16 per cent. If the central bank succeeds in reducing inflation, it will eat into workers' incomes as the economy begins to contract," the paper said.

Falling incomes, analysts say, can proportionally affect the ability of Russians to close their loans, increasing the risk of a debt crisis.

So far, Russia has the tools to maintain economic stability and avoid recession, but experts warn of a worsening situation due to labour shortages, lower productivity and increased isolation from the rest of the world.

In an economy subject to political imperatives, there are few incentives for sustainable development. Sooner or later this will hurt the well-being of ordinary Russians. In other words, temporary fixes and lower living standards will add to the political and economic headwinds the Kremlin faces," Prokopenko says.

Economists believe that the deteriorating standard of living could lead to mass unrest in Russia before the end of the year. Especially if the West continues to strengthen sanctions against Moscow.

Recall, recently, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken called China the main supplier of critical components for Russian weapons. Thus the country, according to the Secretary of State, fuels "the biggest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War." Blinken's concerns were shared by German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock.

According to Bloomberg, China supplies Russia with everything from clothing to transport. In particular, Beijing has given the aggressor country satellite images for military purposes, microelectronics and machines for tanks, as well as optical instruments and fuel for missiles. In return, Moscow has increased coal and oil exports to China.

According to the publication, trade between the countries has now reached a record $240 billion.

At the same time, China has repeatedly made statements regarding the war in Ukraine. Thus, on 7 March, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that "all of China's efforts are aimed at paving the way for ending the conflict and starting peace talks". Earlier, the politician also called for an end to hostilities and said that history would judge all the nuances of the "Ukrainian crisis".