Demographer says how many people will live in Ukraine 15 years after the war
The number of people in the country will decline.
Ukraine is expecting a significant reduction in its population. Thus, 15 years after the end of the war, the country will have 10-12m fewer people than it has now. This was stated by the deputy director for research at the Mykhaylo Ptukhy Institute for Demography and Social Research, Oleksandr Hladun, in an interview with Channel 24.
He said that the experts came up with such figures by making a forecast on birth rate, mortality and migration. But the most important question, to which there is no clear answer yet, is when the war will end.
Much will depend on how long the war will last, and if it ends at the end of 2024 or in 2025, then 15 years after that the population will be about 30.5 million people," he explained.
Demographer reminded that at the beginning of 2022 the number of population of Ukraine was approximately 42 million.
We are talking about the borders of 1991, that is, together with the occupied Crimea and the captured parts of Donetschina and Luhansk region," Gladun stressed.
Forecasting the number of population on the territory of Ukraine, Gladun pointed out that during the war demographic processes have their own peculiarities and only after two to four years after the end of hostilities demographic processes more or less stabilise.
Then more or less accurate forecasts can be made during this period," he emphasised.
Hladun added that a serious challenge after the war will be the aging of the nation, because the birth rate in Ukraine was at a very low level even before the full-scale invasion. Back then, 100 women gave birth to 116 children on average.
Just in order not to reduce the population due to a natural factor, i.e. the ratio of births and deaths, it is necessary that 100 women give birth to 210-220 children, - said Hladun.
He also recalled that more than 6 million Ukrainians, most of whom are women and children, are currently living abroad. In his opinion, about half of these people will return to Ukraine.